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1、第一章1.Differentiatethefollowingterms/concepts:a.ProspectandprobabilitydistributionAprospectisalotteryorseriesofwealthoutcomes,eachofwhichisassociatedwithaprobability,whereasaprobabilitydistributiondefinesthelikelihoodofpossibleoutcomes.b.RiskanduncertaintyRiskismeasurableusin
2、gprobability,butuncertaintyisnot.Uncertaintyiswhenprobabilitiescan’tbeassignedorthepossibleoutcomesareunclear.c.UtilityfunctionandexpectedutilityAutilityfunction,denotedasu( ),assignsnumberstopossibleoutcomessothatpreferredchoicesreceivehighernumbers.Utilitycanbethoughtofast
3、hesatisfactionreceivedfromaparticularoutcome.d.Riskaversion,riskseeking,andriskneutralityRiskaversiondescribessomeonewhopreferstheexpectedvalueofalotterytothelotteryitself.Riskseekingdescribessomeonewhoprefersalotterytotheexpectedvalueofalottery.Andriskneutralitydescribessom
4、eonewhoseutilityoftheexpectedvalueofalotteryisequaltotheexpectedutilityofthelottery.2.Wheneatingout,Roryprefersspaghettioverahamburger.Lastnightshehadachoiceofspaghettiandmacaroniandcheeseanddecidedonthespaghettiagain.Thenightbefore,Roryhadachoicebetweenspaghetti,pizza,andah
5、amburgerandthistimeshehadpizza.Then,todayshechosemacaroniandcheeseoverahamburger.DoesherselectiontodayindicatethatRory’schoicesareconsistentwitheconomicrationality?Whyorwhynot?Rory’spreferencesareconsistentwithrationality.Theyarecompleteandtransitive.Weseethatherpreferenceor
6、deringis:Pizzaspaghettimacaroniandcheesehamburger3.Considerapersonwiththefollowingutilityfunctionoverwealth:u(w)=ew,whereeistheexponentialfunction(approximatelyequalto2.7183)andw=wealthinhundredsofthousandsofdollars.Supposethatthispersonhasa40%chanceofwealthof$50,000anda60%c
7、hanceofwealthof$1,000,000assummarizedbyP(0.40,$50,000,$1,000,000).a.Whatistheexpectedvalueofwealth?E(w)=.4*.5+.6*10=6.2U(P)=.4e0.50+.6e10=13,216.54b.Constructagraphofthisutilityfunction.Thefunctionisconvex.c.Isthispersonriskaverse,riskneutral,orariskseeker?Riskseekerbecauseg
8、raphisconvex.d.Whatisthisperson’scertaintyequivalentfortheprospect?ew=13,21
