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1、AdvancedCreditRiskAnalysisandManagement.CibyJoseph.©2013CibyJoseph.Published2013byJohnWiley&Sons,Ltd.1CreditBasicsHistoricallycreditisgood,ifusedwisely.However,therearenumerousinstanceswherebothlenders(andcreditors)andborrowers(ordebtors)andevenglobaleconomiessufferbecauseofcredit.The
2、mainreasonistraceabletopoorcreditriskanalysisandinadequatecreditriskmanagement.Thepurposeofthisbookistodelveintotherealmofcreditriskanalysisandmanagementindepthsothatbothlendersandborrowerscanmakethebestuseofcreditforthecommongood.Creditprudentlyusedcancreatewealthandbringoverallprosp
3、eritytotheeconomy.Accordingly,credit,nowadays,ispervasiveandisacommonfeatureofallglobaleconomies.Theonlyplacesfromwhichitwouldbeprobablyabsentwouldbeamongthehunter/gatherertribesinthedeepjunglesofAfrica,SouthAmericaorAsiaorinsimilartribesstilllivinginprimitiveconditions.Lookaround,obs
4、erveyournewspapers,magazines,televisionorradioorthebillboardsonhighways–youcanseeinvitationstoparticipateincredit.Manufacturersofautomobileandconsumerdurablegoodsoffercreditdirectlyorthroughtheirfinancesubsidiariesatlowinterestratesoroffersinstalmentschemeswitheasyrepaymentterms.Credi
5、tcardissuersattempttopersuadealmosteverybodytoliveoncreditandatleastsomeofthecreditcardholdersfindthemselveslivingbeyondtheirmeansandalmostinperpetualdebt.Individualsborrowtomeettheirimmediaterequirementsofphysicalneedssuchashouse,furniture,car,consumerdurablegoodsortomeetconsumptione
6、xpendituresuchasmarriageexpenses,educationorholidays.Businessborrowstomakeinvestmentstofacilitateexpan-sionortomeetworkingcapitalrequirements,amongstothers.Governmentsborrowtokeepthemselvesafloatandhopetorepaythemfromfuturetaxrevenuesorfurtherloans.Centralgovernmentandbigbusinessesbor
7、rowfromabroad,whichifnotmanagedproperly,canplungethedebtorcountryintoaninevitableforeignexchangecrisis,ashasbeenseeninthe1997FarEastAsianCrisisand2001ArgentinaCrisis.Thesub-primelendingcrisisintheUS(2008)andtheGreekdebtcrisis(2010)andSpanishdebtcrisis(2012)arealsolinkedtocreditrisks.W
8、hilet
