电力系统可靠性论文演讲

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1、YiGao,RoyBillinton,LifeFellow,IEEE,AndRajeshKarki,SeniorMember,IEEEPowerSymposium,2008.NAPS'08.40thNorthAmericanCompositeGenerationandTransmissionSystemReliabilityEvaluationIncorporatingTwoWindEnergyFacilitiesConsideringWindSpeedCorrelation报告人：路明2013-11-29I.Introduction

2、:GeneratingcapacityfromwindpowerbehavesquitedifferentlythanthatfromconventionalsourceswindishighlyvariablewindisbothsiteandterrainspecificRelativelylittleworkhasbeendoneonthereliabilityevaluationofpowersystemsincorporatingmultipledependentwindenergyfacilities.Thispaperp

3、resentsanapproachtoincorporatedependentwindenergyfacilitiesincompositegenerationandtransmissionadequacyevaluationusingthestatesamplingMonteCarlosimulationtechniqueanddatafromtwowindfacilitiesReginaandSwiftCurrent.II.WindEnergyConversionSystems(WECS)AWECShastwobasicparts

4、:windresourceandtheWTGunitsIftheWECSconsistsofidenticalWTGunitswithzeroFOR,theWECSmult-statemodelisbasicallyidenticaltothatofasingleWTGunit.IftheFORoftheWTGunitsisnotzero,theWECScapacityoutageprobabilityvaluesarenotthesameasthoseofasingleWTGunit.可以假定FOR=0，因为与风况相比，FOR是个对

5、风机实际出力影响可以忽略的随机因素。II(A).WindSpeedModelTheARMAmodelsforthetwositesaregivenasfollows:ThesimulatedwindspeedSWtcanbeobtainedasfollows:II(B).CorrelatedWindSpeedbewteenTwoWindSitesInpractice,windfarmsareneithercompletelydependentnorindependentifthedistancesbetweenthesitesaren

6、otverylarge.Thewindspeedcorrelationbetweentwositescanbecalculatedusingcrosscorrelationasfollows:Acorrelationgreaterthan0.8isgenerallydescribedasstrong,whereasacorrelationlessthan0.5isgenerallydescribedasweak.Toexploretherelationshipbetweenthepowersystemreliabilityandthe

7、windcorrelation,wehavetoadjustthevalueoftheRxybetweenReginaandSwiftCurrent.II(B).CorrelatedWindSpeedbewteenTwoWindSitesTheARMAmodeliscomposedoftwosubcomponents,theARmodelinvolinglaggedtermsinthetimeseriesitself(windspeedfromprevioushours),andtheMAmodelinvolvinglaggedter

8、msinthenoiseorresiduals(whicharerandom).Thereforeitispossibletoadjustthewindspeedcorrelationlevelbyselectingth