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1、AbstractInrecentyears,Chinasufferedalotfromnaturaldisasters,suchasearthquakeandtsunami,whichcausedhugepropertydamageandcasualties.Thedisasterareasrequirealargeamountofemergencysuppliesinordertoprovidebasicsecuritytopeopleandguaranteethecarryingoutofre
2、scuework,soemergencylogisticalsupportisveryimportant.Asthekeyofemergencylogisticalsupportwork,emergencymaterialsdistributionaimsatrealizingtheoptimaldistributionofthelimitedmaterialswithintheshortesttimepossibleafternaturaldisastershappened,sodevelopi
3、ngpracticaldistributionderisionmodelsystemofemergencymaterialshasgreatsignificanceonminimizingthelosscausedbynaturaldisasters.Accordingtothecharacteristicsofsuddennaturaldisasters,thedistributionofemergencysupplieswasdiscussedinthispaperbasedondemandf
4、orecast.Themaincontentsincludethefollowingaspects.(1)Inthispaper,thebasicfeaturesandtypesofnaturaldisasterweresummarized,tofurtherclarifytheresearchbackground.(2)Summaryofbasictheoriesrelatingtoemergencylogistics-Thegoalanddifferentphasesofemergencylo
5、gisticswereintroducedinthispaper,aswellasitselements;thecharacteristicsofemergencylogisticsundersuddennaturaldisastersweresummarized,andthecharacteristics,processandcorrespondingprinciplesofemergencymaterialsdistributionwerefurtherprovided・(3)Studyofe
6、mergencymaterialsdemandforecast.Themaincontentsandcharacteristicsofemergencymaterialsaresummarized,aswellasthethepredictionmethodofemergencymaterialsdemand.Andanappropriateforecastingmethodisprovidedaccordingtotheobjectofstudyinthispaper:firstlyfindin
7、gsimilarcasesbasedonthetheoryofcase-basedreasoningandgreycorrelationdegreeanalysis;thenanalyzingthedemandofemergencymaterialswithBPneuralnetwork.Inthispaper,takingthedataofYushuearthquakeasanexample,theeffectivenessofthisforecastingmethodwasverifiedth
8、roughsimulationexperiments.(4)Researchonemergencymaterialsdistribution.Firstly,accordingtoactualsituationandresearchbefore,atertiarystructureofthenetworkforemergencylogisticsmaterialsisestablished,whichincludethedistributingcenters,dispatchcen
