经预测与决策论文

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1、经预测与决策论文摘要：以GDP为因变量，教育支出为解释变量，分析两者之间的关系。再应用Eview软件对教育投资额与GDP进行相关关系分析，得出两变量具有线性相关关系，再进行相关性检验。最后得出结果:当期教育支出增加1%,GDP增长31.0888%,18年前的教育支出增加1%。我们将1978年-2003年的教育支出与GDP的数据收集整理如F：财政支财政收教育支固定资产投资年份GDP出入出总量（亿元）19783624.101122.091132.2675.0577719794038.201281.791146.38

2、93.1688819804517.801228.831159.93114.15910.919814862.40113&411175.79122.7996119825294.701229.981212.33137.611230.419835934.501409.521366.95155.241430.0619847171.001701.021642.86180.881832.8719858964.402004.252004.82226.832543.2198610202.202204.912122.01274.7

3、23120.6198711962.502262.182199.35293.933791.7198814928.302491.212357.24356.664753.8198916909.202823.782664.90412.394410.4199018547.903083.592937.10462.454517199121617.803386.623149.48532.395594.5199226638.103742.203483.37621.718080.1199334634.404642.304348.9

4、5754.9013072.3199446759.405792.625218.101018.7817042.1199558478.106823.726242.201196.6520019.3199667884.607937.557407.991415.7122913.5199774462.609233.561079&18651.141545.8224941.1199878345.2089875.951726.3028406.213187.611444.0199982067.50781927.3229854.711

5、5886.513395.2200089468.10032179.5232917.7318902.516386.0200197314.80842636.8437213.4922053.118903.62002104790.60543105.9943499.9124649.921715.22003116898.40553351.3255566.61以GDP为因变量Y,同时设解释变量为X。再应用Eview软件对教育投资额与GDP进行相关关系分析，得到如下图所示的变量相关关系散布图上的点接近一条直线，可近似看作两变量具

6、有线性相关。鉴于此，我们继续对两变量一-教育投资和GDP进行如下回归分析。（一）分别用各期的教育支出解释GDP,迹行比较考虑用最小二乘法Y对各滞后期X分别回归，得出关于各滞后期的可决系数的数据表格R-squareAdjustedR-squareclYX0.9681270.966799YX(-1)0.9623490.960712YX(-2)0.9607450.958691YX(-3)0.9513210.949003YX(-4)0.9314820.928056YX(-5)0.9102730.905551YX(-6)

7、0.8906390.884563YX(-7)0.8742080.866808YX(-8)0.8733530.865438YX(-9)0.8839090.876169YX(-10)0.9205080.914830YX(-11)0.9206180.914511YX(-12)0.9090150.901433YX(-13)0.8948590.885301YX(-14)0.8921510.881366YX(-15)0.9135030.903892YX(-16)0.9460940.939356YX(-17)0.975826

8、0.972373YX(-18)0.9881140.986128YX(-19)0.9683440.962012YX(-20)0.9679470.9599341.我们发现各个回归方程的T检验都很理想，说明各滞后期教育支出X对Y都有很人的影响DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:10/29/11Time:20:59Sample:19782003