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1、外文翻译原文ConsumerCreditRiskCharacteristics:UnderstandingIncomeandExpenseDifferentialsMaterialSource:EmergingMarketsFinance&TradeAuthor:ArslanandMehmetBahaKaranThelatestU.S.mortgagecrisishighlightstherisksofunderestimatingthetrueexposuretoconsumercreditrisksandnotprofoundlyevaluatingconsumercreditw
2、orthiness.AsofDecember22,2007,theamountofsubprimecreditdefaultsintheU.S.mortgagemarketisestimatedtoreachalevelbetween$200billionto$300billion,whereasmajorbanksandotherfinancialinstitutionshavereportedcreditlossesofapproximately$130billionasofJanuary2008.Eventually,theconsumercreditcrisisintheU.
3、S.marketisexpectedtoresultinweakeninghouseholdconsumption,withnegativemultipliereffectsondomesticdemand,employment,andeconomicactivity.FollowingthemortgagecrisisintheUnitedStatesanditseffectontheoveralleconomy,attentionturnstoconsumercreditinemergingmarkets.Asoneoftheleadingemergingeconomies,Tu
4、rkey’sconsumercreditmarketwasfullyestablishedbythemid1990s.TheyearsfollowingTurkey’slastcrisisperiod,beginningin2003,sawahighriseinconsumercreditsofTurkishhouseholds.TheannualnetgrowthofconsumercreditinTurkeyfrom2004to2005was57.2percent,whereastheannualnetriseincorporatecreditsforthesameperiodw
5、asonly18.3percent.ThedramaticincreaseinconsumercreditsupplyispartlyduetotheintenseparticipationofforeignbanksintheTurkishconsumercreditmarket.WhereastheproportionofforeignbankstototalbanksoperatinginTurkey’sdomesticbankingsectorwas2.6percentin2002,itwas13.6in2005.Moreover,asindicatedbyGetter(20
6、06),thehigheconomicgrowthrate,whichisannually5percentonaverageforthepostcrisisperiodinTurkey,playsamajorroleinstimulatingthedemandsideofconsumercredit.Nevertheless,thepercentageofdefaultedconsumercredittototalcreditintheTurkisheconomyrosefrom2.9in2002to17in2005.ÖzdemirandBoran(2004)andSwain(200
7、7)showthattheimportanceofmanagingconsumercreditriskisrelativelygreaterforemergingmarketsthanfordevelopedcountries.Thefinancialmarketsofemergingeconomiesaremorevolatileanddonotfunctionsmoothly,andthefinancialinstrumentstoreducerisk
