中国电动汽车：突然刹车

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1、GlobalAutoSectorChinaelectriccars:brakingsuddenly?Near-termgrowthbottleneckAfterover80%salesvolumegrowthin2018and60%inH119,weexpectH219Chinaelectriccargrowthtoslowtoaroundzero.Asubsidycutofover60%sincelateJuneisakeyreason,butover-relianceonlicenceplaterestrictionsandfleetpurchasesarealsodrags

2、onnear-termgrowth.Aftertracingseveralmillioncompulsoryinsuranceregistrationentrydata,weestimateover40%ofelectriccarsaresoldincitieswithlicenceplaterestrictionsandwhererestrictionsarebeingrelaxedamidweakcombustionenginecarsales.Ride-on-demandprocurementaccountsforabout40%ofelectriccarsalesanda

3、growthbottleneckisemerging.Carmakersurgentlyneedtopenetrateindividualprocurementinnon-restrictivecitiesforfurthergrowth,inourview.Wepreferleadingincumbents(GACandGeely)overEV-focusedplays(NIOandBYD)inthisenvironment.TheraceforinnovationThetougherenvironmentaside,theindustryismakingfasttechnol

4、ogicalprogress.Weanalysedhundredsofmodelvariantsapprovedbythegovernment,andfoundthatduringthepast18monthsenergydensityhasimprovedby13%,powerefficiencyby26%,andaveragedrivingrangeisupby50%.ThecompetitivelandscapeisalsochangingfastwithGACandGeelyemergingasnewtechleaders.Teslastillleadsonbrandre

5、cognitionandusedcarresidualvalue,andweexpectlocalisationtobringdownpricesbyover20%anddisruptthemarket,especiallyatthehighend.Long-termcostparityunchangedBasedoninnovationandprogressonthesupplyside,wethinktotalcostparitywithcombustioncarsisachievableinthenextthreetofiveyears,andtheelectriccarm

6、arketwillresumea30-40%volumeCAGRto2025E,accountingforaquarterofthenewcarmarketbythen.However,weexpecttoughcompetitioninthelead-up.ChallengingtimesforEVcompaniesWethinkinvestorsunderestimatethechallengesforEVmakersandthesupplychain.WeresumecoverageofBYDwithaSellratingonrisingcompetitionandaric

7、hvaluation.WethinkleadingincumbentcarmakerslikeGACandGeelyhavemorethanadequateresourcesforelectriccarR&D,andwehaveBuyratingsonboth.Figure1:KeycompanywatchlistShareprice2019E2020EEVrevCompanyCodeRatingPT(LC)(LC)PE(x)PE(x)exposureKeyEVinitiativ