中国城市化2.0：大湾区向低碳能源转型的受益者们

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1、MMChina'sUrbanization2.0BeneficiariesoftheGreaterBayArea'sTransitiontoLow-NCarbonEnergyuclearisthebestoptionforGBA'stransitiontolowcarbon.WedoubleupgradeCGNPowertoOWandupgradeHKEItoOW.IndustryViewChinaUtilities—AttractiveWHAT’SCHANGEDFromToHKElectric

2、Investments(2638.HK)PriceTargetHK$7.00HK$8.60RatingEqual-weightOverweightCKInfrastructureHoldingsLtd(1038.HK)RatingNAEqual-weightPriceTargetNAHK$54.00PowerAssetsHoldingsLtd(0006.HK)PriceTargetNAEqual-weightRatingNAHK$57.00CGNPowerCo.,Ltd(1816.HK)Rati

3、ngUnderweightOverweightPriceTargetHK$1.80HK$2.52ChinaYangtzePowerCo.(600900.SS)PriceTargetRmb18.00Rmb20.00HuanengLancangRiverHydropowerInc(600025.SS)PriceTargetRmb4.39Rmb4.50GBAwillbeChina'sleadingregionincarbonreductionandairquality:TheParisAgreemen

4、t,airpollutionandenergyefficiencypressure,andGBA'spowertariffaffordability–thehighestinChina–allpointtoGBAbecomingChina'sleaderinitsdecarbonizationstrategy.Weexpectcleanenergytobe80%ofGBA'sinstalledcapacityby2035,faraheadofChina'saverageof65%.GBA'spl

5、antoreducecoal:GBAhas32GWofcoalpowercapacitytodayandplansa31%reductionby2035,to22GW.Excludingcoal,nuclearandimportedhydropowerarethemostcompetitiveenergysourcesvs.gasandoffshorewind.Weexpectincreasesof180%innuclearand50%inhydropowerimports.Nuclearre

6、naissancefrom2020:WeexpectaccelerationofnuclearapprovalsuponcommissioningofChina'sfirstHualongOneunit.Nucleariscompetitivewithcoalundernewmarketstructure,andwillreplacecoaltobecomethecorebaseloadpowersource.CGNPowerwillbethekeybeneficiary.Hydropowerf

7、romYunnanandTibetfrom2025:WesttoEastPowersupplied36.2%ofGuangdong'spowerdemandin2018.Weexpect10-20GWofadditionalpowertoGuangdongby2030,pri-marilysuppliedbyChinaYangtzePower'sWudongde(5GW)andHuanengHydro'splanned10GWofTibetanhydropower.HongKongtoimpor

8、tfromGuangdong:HongKong'stargetofdecarbonizationby2050requires80%cleanenergy,vs.localresourcesof3-4%.ImportnuclearfromGuangdongistheonlyviableoption.WeexpectCLPtoimportmorefrom2025andHKEItocon-nectwithGuangdongviaunderseapowerlines.UpgradeCGNPowerand