越南出口贸易函数实证研究

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1、南京理工大学硕士学位论文越南出口贸易函数实证研究姓名：阮宋江申请学位级别：硕士专业：国际贸易学导教师：杜宽旗20100620AbstractVietNam,oneofthedevelopingcountriesintheworld,isratherfinanciallyhardafterbreakupofSovietUnion.Inrecent30years,ithasmadedesperateeffortstodisposetheproblemsafterthewaranddevelopeconomy,whichistransferredfromconservat

2、iveplannedeconomytomarketeconomy.In1986,VietNambegantoimplementthereformandopening-uppolicy.In2001，theysetthegoalof"socialismdirectedmarketeconomynandsuggestedtointegrateVietNumintotheworldeconomicsystemandstrivetodevelopextravertedeconomy.Inbackgroundoffreeinvestmentmarket^manyforeign

3、investorsareconcerningaboutMetNamorgoingtoentrythemarketifHVAetNam.Forabout20yearssincereformandopening-up,Namhasmadegreatachievementinexternaltrades,especiallythegreatimpactsondevelopmentofeconomyandtradesoftheentranceofWTO>Thispaperpointesattheunstablestatesofeconomyandsocietysinceth

4、e1990sandchoosetheexporttradesofVietNamasresearchobjectThispapergivesqualitativeanalysisaboutthefactorsaffectingtheexporttradesofAetNaminthemethodofclassictheoryofinternationaltrades,presentsquantificationnallyresearchthroughthetheoryofco-integrationandvectorauto-regressionmodelandgiv

5、esthedynamicandstaticforecastsofthemodelatlastTheresultsindicatethatthemainfactorsofVietNam'sexporttradesaretheimporttrades,GDP,FDLFromthelong-rangeco-integrationmodel,wefindthattheimporttradesandGDPhavesignificantpositiveeffectsandFDIhasnegativeeffects.Thedirectinvestmentstructureoffo

6、reigninvestorsgivesreasonableexplanationofthedemonstrationresults.Fromtheerrorcorrectionmodel，wefindthattheadjustintensityof0.7195canturntheunbalancedstateintobalancedstatewhenshortperiodfluctuationdeviatefromlong-rangebalance.Fromthepulseresponsefunctionofexporttrades,importtrades,exp

7、orttradesandFDI,weconcludethatwecouldincreaseimporttradesorinputsofFDIthroughgovernmentpolicyifwewanttoincreaseexporttrades?andthentheexporttradescouldbeincreased,buttheraisemarginislimitedandtheincreasehashystereticnature.FromthevariationsolutionsofVARmod叫wecanfindthatallofimporttra