上证走势图波浪分析

《上证走势图波浪分析》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在工程资料-天天文库。

1、上证走势图波浪分析ChineseStockMarket,TheBigPictureofTurbulentWavesLong-term,intermediate-term,&short-termanalysisoftheShanghaiStockExchangeCompositeIndexTheChinesestockmarketisnotinavacuumofitsown.ItisexposedtotheenvironmentwithagrowingriskofinflationinChinaandagrowingriskofreces

2、sionintheUnitedStates,whichcouldbetwomajorfundamentalprecursorsforpotentialworldwidestagflation.OnemaythinkthattheChinesemarketisstillbullishforalongtermandjustbearishforashortterm.Onthecontrary,thechartsherewithaspectrumoftimeframessuggestthattheShanghaiIndexcurrentlyis

3、inasignificantdowntrendwithalong-termbearishperspective,butitmayhaveapotentialcounter-trendrallywithashort-termbullishbias.Up-and-downisthenatureofthestockmarkets;therearealwaysbumpsonthewaytoeitherdirection.Thisisaveryvolatilemarket.Carefulevaluationofinvestment/trading

4、projectionsandportfolioexposureswithinpropertimeframesortimehorizonscouldbecritical.(意译，下同)上证指数的长期、小期与短期波浪分析中国股票市场并非存在于真空之中，它面临着口见增长的国内通胀与美国经济衰退的风险，而这可能是全球范围内经济滞涨的两大主耍前导因素。或许人们可以认为A股市场仍然处于长牛短熊Z屮，但恰恰相反，时间框架内的图谱显示，上证指数正处于明显的下行趋势和熊市前景之中，虽然它具有潜在的逆势反弹与短期牛市倾向。涨跌是市场的常态，总有逆向的波动存

5、在于大趋势之屮。这是一个动荡不定的市场，在一个恰当的时间周期之内，对投资标的、投资组合进行审慎估值，是至关重要的。Chart1.Long-termpicture(monthlychart),comparisonwithhistoricworld-classstockmarketbubbles图一，长周期，上证月K线图与其他世界级的股票市场泡沫的比较Chart2.1ntcrmcdiatc-tcrmpicture(weeklychart),apotentialBARRpattern中周期周K线图，BARR模式Chart3.1ntermedi

6、ate-termpicture(dailychart),apotentialhead-and-shouldersPattern中周期u线图，头肩顶模式Chart4.Short-termpicture(dailychart),apotentialCCIreversalpattern短周期Fl线图，cci转向指标Chart5.Short-termpicture(dailychart),dailyvolatility短周期tl线图，日波动比率$SSEC(Shan^iaiStockExchangeCompositeIndex)INDX©Stoc

7、kCharts.comChartlisamonthlychartoftheShanghaiStockExchangeCompositeIndexincomparisonwiththeNikkeiIndexandtheNASDAQindex.Afterthe1990NikkeiBubbleandthe2000NASDAQBubble,theShanghaiIndexin2007formedanotherbiggeststockmarketbubbleinrecenthistory.BoththeNikkeiIndexandtheNASDA

8、QIndexhadmorethan75%retracementfromtheirbubblehighs,andbothindexesarestillfarbelowtheirall-timehighsaft