金融危机对欧美电信的影响

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1、GlobalFinancialCrisis:EuropeandUSAnalysis,TelecomsIndustryImpactsandOutlookonChinaPreparedfor:24stNovember,2008Boston•London•KansasCity•Shanghai•Washington,DCAgendaToday’sdiscussionGlobalFinancialCrisisAssessmentImpactonTelecomindustryImpactandPerspectiveonChinaOverviewGlobal

2、FinancialCrisisAssessmentGlobalImbalancesHighdebtlevelsLackoftransparencyonriskDeclineinhousingmarketCommoditypricespikesFearsofinflationCausesCreditcrunchBankcollapsesStockmarketsplummetUnemploymentontheriseLossofconsumerconfidenceandspendingcutLossofbusinessconfidenceRecess

3、ionarypressuresEffectsBankrescuepackagesFiscalstimuliInterestratedropsInstitutionalmeasuresResponsesWillbepresentedintermsof:GDPInflationLabourFiscalandCurrentAccountBalanceOutlookAgendaToday’sdiscussionGlobalFinancialCrisisAssessmentCausesEffectsResponsesOutlookImpactonTelec

4、omindustryImpactandPerspectiveonChinaCausesHugeglobalimbalancesdestabiliseeconomies,currenciesandinterestratesUnitedStates,astheworld'sgreatestpower,istheworld'sgreatestborrowerThebuildupinU.S.netforeigndebtissubstantiallymirroredinreserveaccumulationbyemergingmarketsAccountd

5、eficitSpain,UKandItalyarethe3EuropeancountrieswiththehighestaccountbalancedeficitAccountsurplusChinahasthelargestsurplusIngeneral,manymorecountrieshavedeficitsthansurplusesOthersincludeJapan,manyAsianemergingmarketeconomies,andincreasinglyoil-producingcountries,includingRussi

6、aaswellascountriesoftheMiddleEastThedisorderlycorrectionofaccountbalancesviaabruptdeclinesinUSDandriseinUSinterestrates,threatensglobalprosperityandgrowthCommentsCausesOverthelastdecade,escalatingconsumercredithasunderpinnedbankingsuccessLendingtohouseholdshascontinuedtoexpan

7、datstrongratesHouseholddebtisonlyaround90%ofincomeintheeuro-zone.Thatcomparesveryfavourablywith140%intheUSand160%intheUKSincethemillennium,consumersintheUKandtheUShaveaccruedsignificanthouseholddebtwithrespecttogrossdispensableincomeThisdebthasbeenagreatsourceofincomeforbanks

8、,foundedonthebeliefthatmoderncapitalmarketshadbecomesomuchmoreadvanc