1、经济学人全球面临债务危机中国为何能全身而退You can find bubbliness in bits of American finance,including the corporate-bond market, and somenasty off-balance-sheet liabilities like student loansand public-sector pensions, but America does notlook like a source of imminent trouble.你可以在美国金融里找到泡沫碎片，包括证券市场，和一些严重的表外负债
2、，像学生贷款和公共部门养老金，但是美国看起来并不会产生迫在眉睫的麻烦。Britain and Japan have changed less. Abenomics has improved Japan's prospects, butgovernment debt is still close to 250% of GDP.英国和日本改变较少。安备经济学已提高日本的经济预期但是，政府债务仍相当于GDP的250%左右。In Britain the combination of budget cuts and weak private investment has produced
3、 arecovery that is built on the same ingredients—particularly rising house prices—that caused thelast bust.在英国，预算减少与个人投资力弱双重作用之下，催生了建立在相同因素上的复苏--尤其是不断上涨的房价---这引发了最后的破产。Britain is not about to fell the world economy, but growth that was based more on investment,both public and private, would
4、be an awful lot safer.英国并不打算让世界经济雪上加霜，但基于更多公共和私人投资的增长将极其缓慢。What about emerging economies, many of which have seen a big run-up in debt?许多新兴经济体债务迅猛增高，他们情况如何？China is often dubbed a Lehman-in-the-making.中国经常被称作“一个正在形成的雷曼兄弟”Since 2008 credit growth in the Middle Kingdom, now the world's second-
5、largest economy, hasexploded, and by some estimates is over 200% of GDP.自2008年起中国信贷开始增长，现在，这个位居世界第二的经济大国，已经爆炸，并且据估计，其债务已经相当于GDP的200%左右。China's financial system has few international connections.中国金融体系同国际联系较少。But, as in America in 2008, there is uncertainty about the true size of its debts an
6、d how muchof them will be repaid.但是，正如2008年的美国，中国也不确定其债务的真正规模以及他们将要归还的债务总量。The danger China poses depends on the third ingredient of the Lehman conflagration: how thegovernment behaves when trouble strikes.中国呈现的危险建立在雷曼灾难的第三个因素上，在危机来临时政府采取怎样的举措。The country is a big net saver, the banking syst
7、em is still largely deposit-funded and thegovernment has the fiscal capacity to underwrite troubled loans.中国是位净储存大户，银行体系仍很大程度上依靠储户存款筹资并且，政府有承担不良贷款的财政实力。Provided it does so, the odds of a sudden collapse with global ramifications are low.考虑到此种情况，中国银
