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1、第九章经济波动导论宏观经济学(第6版)(美)曼昆任课教师任力0本章目的长期与短期的差别介绍总需求长期与短期总供给理解如何运用总供给与总需求曲线分析长期与短期的“冲击”效应1美国实际GDP的增长平均增长率=3.5%2Short-runfluctuationsinoutputandemploymentarecalledthebusinesscycle.Inpreviouschapters,wedevelopedtheoriestoexplainhowtheeconomybehavesinthelongrun;nowwe’llseektounderstandhowtheeconomyb
2、ehavesintheshortrun.TheBusinessCycle3GDPandItsComponantsGDPisthefirstplacetostartwhenanalyzingthebusinesscycle,sinceitisthelargestgaugeofeconomicconditions.TheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch(NBER)istheofficialdeterminerofwhethertheeconomyissufferingfromarecession.Arecessionisusuallydefinedby
3、aperiodinwhichtherearetwoconsecutivedeclinesinrealGDP.Inrecessions,bothconsumptionandinvestmentdecline;however,investment(businessequipment,structures,newhousingandinventories)isevenmoresusceptibletodecline.4Okun'sLawOkun'sLawInrecessions,unemploymentrises.Thisnegative(whenonerises,theotherfa
4、lls)relationshipbetweenunemploymentandGDPiscalledOkun’sLaw,afterArthurOkun,theeconomistwhofirststudiedit.Inshort,itisdefinedas:PercentageChangeinRealGDP=3.5%-2theChangeintheUnemploymentRateIftheunemploymentrateremainsthesame,realGDPgrowsbyabout3.5percent.Foreverypercentagepointtheunemploymen
5、traterises,realGDPgrowthtypicallyfallsby2percent.Hence,iftheunemploymentraterisesfrom5to8percent,thenrealGDPgrowthwouldbe:PercentageChangeinRealGDP=3.5%-2(8%-5%)=-2.5%Inthiscase,GDPwouldfallby2.5%,indicatingthattheeconomyisinarecession.5LeadingEconomicIndicatorsManyeconomistsinbusinessandgov
6、ernmenthavetheroleofforecastingshort-runfluctuationsintheeconomy.Onewaythateconomistsarriveatforecastsisthroughlookingatleadingindicators.Eachmonth,theConferenceBoard,aprivateeconomicsResearchannouncestheindexofleadingeconomicindicators,whichconsistsof10dataseries.6IndexofLeadingEconomicIndic
7、atorsAverageworkweekofproductionworkersinmanufacturingAverageinitialweeklyclaimsforunemploymentinsuranceNewordersforconsumergoodsandmaterialsadjustedforinflationNeworders,nondefensecapitalgoodsVendorperformanceNewbuildingpermitsissuedIndexofs