巴西旅游业的动态分析：挑战和建议【外文翻译】

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1、原文:AnanalysisofthedynamicsofthetourismindustryinBrazil：challengesandrecommendations出处：InternationalJournalofContemporaryHospitalityManagement作者：FilipeSobral,AlketaPeci,GustavoSouzaAbstractPurpose–ThemainpurposeofthisstudyistopresentananalysisofthedynamicsofthetourismmarketinSouthAmericaand,more

2、specifically,inBrazil,bymeasuringandanalyzingthegrowthintourists’arrivalstotheregionbetween1998and2002.Design/methodology/approach–Thisstudyusestheshift-sharetechniquethatdecomposesthegrowthofthenumberoftouristsintovariouscomponents,enablingin-depthdiagnosisofthedynamicsofthesectorintheperiod.F

3、indings–DespitethefactthatBrazilistheleadingtouristdestinationinSouthAmerica,thestudyshowsthatBrazilhasbeenlosinggroundinrelationtosomeofitsneighborsinSouthAmerica.Thestudyalsorevealedtheimpactof9/11andArgentina’scrisesandthegrowingparticipationoftheEuropeantouristinBrazil.Originality/value–Des

4、pitesomelimitations,thistechniquehastheadvantageoffocusingonaregionscarcelystudiedinmainstreamtourismresearchesandofferingBrazilianpolicy-makersanewmethodologysuchthattheymaytakeadvantageofemergingopportunitiesandcreatecompetitiveadvantagesforthecountry.Keywords:Tourism,Publicpolicy,Brazil,Sout

5、hAmericaIntroductionTourismisasectorexperiencingmajorgrowthintermsoftheglobaleconomy.Eversincethe1950swheninternationaltravelbecameaccessibletothepublicingeneral,thenumberoftouristshasbeengrowingatanaveragerateof6.8percentperyear.Estimatesarethatin2005thenumberofincomingtouriststotaled808millio

6、n.Thetrendsforthefutureofthetourismindustryindicatethatby2020thenumberofincominginternationaltouristswillbeintheorderof1.6billion(WorldTourismOrganization,2006).AccordingtoWorldTravelandTourismCouncilitisexpectedthatthetourismwillcontribute3.6percenttoglobalGDPin2006(WorldTravelandTourismCounci

7、l,2006).Inviewoftheimportanceofthetourismsector,thisstudyseekstocontributewithanotherpotentiallyusefultechnicalanalysistoolforevaluatingthesector.TheobjectiveistoprovidepolicymakersinBrazilwithasystematicapproachtowardsmanagingthe