PIMCO_Emerging_Markets_Watch_Toloui_August2013

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1、EmergingMarketsWatchAugust2013RaminTolouiYourGlobalInvestmentAuthorityWhatRoleforEmergingMarketsAftertheSell-Off?“Isnowtherighttimetobuy?”Thisisthequestionthatis–andshouldbe–onthemindsofinvestorsafterthesharpmovementsinfinancialmarketsthatbeganinMay.Vir

2、tuallynosectoroftheglobalfixedincomemarketwasimmune,andemergingmarkets(EM)wasnoexception,experiencingoneofitsworstperiodsofperformanceinthepastdecade.InthethreemonthsendinginJuly,localcurrency-denominatedEMsovereignbondsfell10.6%,U.S.dollar-denominatedE

3、Msovereignbondsdeclined7.8%,andU.S.dollar-denominatedEMcorporatebondsdropped5.8%.EMequitiesalsofaredpoorly,falling7.8%.ThepastwouldsuggestthatperiodsofunderperformanceinEMultimatelycouldbecomebuyingopportunities.Overthepast10years,quartersinwhichtotalre

4、turnswerenegativewerefollowedbyquartersofpositivereturnsmorethan70%ofthetimeinlocalcurrency-andU.S.dollar-denominatedEMbonds.Thisimpliesthatinthepastacertainamountofmeanreversionhasbeenthenorm,inwhichsellingduringperiodsofstressovershootsandisfollowedby

5、abounceinpricesafterthestresssubsides.Butitisdangeroustorelyonsimplehistoricalpatternstoformaninvestmentthesisinthecurrentenvironment.Thepast10yearshaveseenanunprecedenteddeclineinglobalyields.Therecentsell-offofcoursewastriggeredbyconcernsthatthetaperi

6、ngoflarge-scaleassetpurchasesbytheU.S.FederalReservewouldremoveakeysourceofsupportformarketvaluations.Whetherornotonebelievesthatthemarketreactiontoprospectivetaperingisoverdone,itisclearthatafterunprecedentedinterventioninfinancialmarkets,theFedatsomep

7、ointfacesthechallengeofunprecedentedwithdrawal.Withallthese“unprecedenteds”floatingaround,backward-lookinganalysisshouldbetreatedwithcaution.Rather,inassessingvalueinEMbonds,oranyassetclassforthe4millionjobopeningsthatemployerswerelookingtofillthatmatte

8、r,itisimportanttoanchorinvestmentviewswithinwouldhavebeenassociatedwitharound8millionamacroeconomicoutlook.Theunderlyingstrengthofglobalunemployedpersons,whereastoday’snumberisalmosteconomicactivityultimatelyactsasasourceofgravit