8behavioural-finance

8behavioural-finance

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时间:2019-08-16

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1、BehaviouralFinanceMartinSewellDepartmentofComputerScienceUniversityCollegeLondonMay2007AbstractAnintroductiontobehaviouralfinance.1IntroductionBehaviouralfinanceisthestudyoftheinfluenceofpsychologyonthebehaviouroffinancialpractitionersandthesubsequenteffectonmarkets.Behaviouralfinancehelpsexplainwhyandhow

2、marketsmightbeinefficient.Formoreinformationonbehaviouralfinance,seeSewell(2001).2HistoryBackin1896,GustaveleBonwroteTheCrowd:AStudyofthePopularMind,oneofthegreatestandmostinfluentialbooksofsocialpsychologyeverwritten(leBon1896).Selden(1912)wrotePsychologyoftheStockMarket.Hebasedthebook“uponthebelieftha

3、tthemovementsofpricesontheexchangesaredependenttoaveryconsiderabledegreeonthementalattitudeoftheinvestingandtradingpublic”.In1956theUSpsychologistLeonFestingerintroducedanewconceptinsocialpsychology:thetheoryofcognitivedissonance(Festinger,RieckenandSchachter1956).Whentwosimultaneouslyheldcognitions

4、areinconsistent,thiswillproduceastateofcognitivedissonance.Becausetheexperienceofdissonanceisunpleasant,thepersonwillstrivetoreduceitbychangingtheirbeliefs.Pratt(1964)considersutilityfunctions,riskaversionandalsorisksconsid-eredasaproportionoftotalassets.TverskyandKahneman(1973)introducedtheavailabi

5、lityheuristic:“ajudg-mentalheuristicinwhichapersonevaluatesthefrequencyofclassesortheprob-abilityofeventsbyavailability,i.e.,bytheeasewithwhichrelevantinstances1cometomind.”Therelianceontheavailabilityheuristicleadstosystematicbiases.In1974,twobrilliantpsychologists,AmosTverskyandDanielKahneman,desc

6、ribedthreeheuristicsthatareemployedwhenmakingjudgmentsunderuncertainty(TverskyandKahneman1974):representativenessWhenpeopleareaskedtojudgetheprobabilitythatanobjectoreventAbelongstoclassorprocessB,probabilitiesareevaluatedbythedegreetowhichAisrepresentativeofB,thatis,bythedegreetowhichAresemblesB.av

7、ailabilityWhenpeopleareaskedtoassessthefrequencyofaclassortheprobabilityofanevent,theydosobytheeasewithwhichinstancesoroccurrencescanbebroughttomind.anchoringandadjustmentInnumericalprediction,whenare

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