OPTIMAL CAPITAL STRUCTURE FOR BUILD-OPERATE-TRANSFER POWER PROJECTS

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1、OPTIMALCAPITALSTRUCTUREFORBUILD-OPERATE-TRANSFERPOWERPROJECTSATHESISSUBMITTEDTOTHEGRADUATESCHOOLOFNATURALANDAPPLIEDSCIENCESOFTHEMIDDLEEASTTECHNICALUNIVERSITYBYERDEMARICIINPARTIALFULFILLMENTOFTHEREQUIREMENTSFORTHEDEGREEOFMASTEROFSCIENCEINTHEDEPARTMENTOFCIVILENGIN

2、EERINGJULY20031ApprovaloftheGraduateSchoolofNaturalandAppliedSciencesProf.Dr.CananÖzgenDirectorIcertifythatthisthesissatisfiesalltherequirementsasathesisforthedegreeofMasterofScienceProf.Dr.MustafaTokyayHeadofDepartmentThisistocertifythatIhavereadthisthesisandth

3、atinouropinionitisfullyadequate,inscopeandquality,asathesisforthedegreeofMasterofScience.Asst.Prof.Dr.MetinArıkanSupervisorExaminingCommitteeMembersAsst.Prof.Dr.MetinARIKANAsst.Prof.Dr.İremDİKMENInst.Dr.EnginERANTNadiBAKIR(MSc.inCE)TuncayALTUNSU(MSc.inCE)2ABSTRA

4、CTOPTIMALCAPITALSTRUCTUREFORBUILD-OPERATE-TRANSFERPOWERPROJECTSARICI,ErdemM.S.DepartmentofCivilEngineeringSupervisor:Asst.Prof.Dr.MetinARIKANJuly2003,119pagesObservingthedeficienciesoftraditionalmethodsinmeetingthedemandsoftoday’sinfrastructuredevelopmenthasbeen

5、motivatingcountriestowardsprivatizationofthesesectors.However,duetothedifferencesinthesesectorsascomparedtootherbusinesses,privatizationcannotbeperformedwithoutstrictregulations.Today,concessionagreementslikeBOTmodelsseemthebestwayforsolvingtheproblems.Financing

6、ofconcessionagreementsplaysakeyrole.InTurkey,mostBOTprojectsarefinancedbycapitalstructurethathasamaximumdebtratio,whichisallowedbythelaw.iiiTheobjectiveofthisstudyistoexaminewhetherthemaximumamountofdebtratioistheoptimumamountofdebtratio.Optimizationiscarriedout

7、byanalyzingthetradeoffbetweenbenefitsoftaxshieldandthelossduetofinancialfailureasaresultofchangeinleverage,assumingotherthingsarethesame.AtheoreticalframeworkisdevelopedfortheanalysisbyselectingAdjustedPresentValueMethodasafinancialtool.EnergygenerationsectorinT

8、urkeyisanalyzed,stockmarketdatainTurkeyisusedfortheanalysis,andabankruptcypredictionmodelisproposedforBOTprojectsinTurkey.Finally,byusingthetheoreticalframework,anact