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1、TheImpactofRMB’sAppreciationonChina’sTrade*SupportedbyNSFCandMinistryofCommerceofPRChina.Theauthorsareverygratefultotheanonymousrefereesandtheeditor-in-chieffortheirveryvaluablecommentsandsuggestions.GuihuanZheng1,2,LiGuo2,XuemeiJiang2,XunZhang1,2andShouyangWang1,2,#Thecorrespondinga
2、uthor,Email:sywang@amss.ac.cn;Fax:86-10-62621304.1InstituteofSystemsScience,AcademyofMathematicsandSystemsScience,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100080,China2SchoolofManagement,GraduateUniversityofChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100080,ChinaAbstract:Withtheannouncementofreformingthe
3、RMBexchangerateregimeonJuly21,2005,greatattentionhasbeenpaidtotheimpactsofRMB’sappreciationonChina’strade.SinceChinabeinginthetransitionfrompeggingtoamanagedfloatingregime,noexistingapproximatemodelandmethodcanbeutilizedtoinvestigatethisquestiondirectly.Inthispaper,scenarioanalysiste
4、chniqueisusedtogiveastudyonthisissue,coupledwiththeintroductionofthesubstitutedvaluables:JapaneseyenandEuroexchangerate.OurresultsshowthatRMB’sappreciationwouldnotbringsevereeffectsonChina’stradein2005;however,thepossiblesustainedreductionofexportgrowthin2006shouldbepaidmoreattention
5、.ItisalsonecessaryandurgenttopressforwardwiththereformofRMBexchangerateregime,andputuptherelatedsupportingpoliciestoavoidsuchsuddenfluctuationastheJapanesesituationafter“PlazaAccord”.JELClassification:C53,F17,F31Keywords:RMB’sappreciation,China’strade,Scenarioanalysis1.IntroductionTh
6、eRMBexchangeratebecameahottopicaftertheannouncementofexchangerateregimereformonJuly21,2005.Thenewregime,amanagedfloatingexchangerateregimebasedonmarketsupplyanddemandwithreferencetoabasketofcurrencies,allowsRMBtoriseby2%,withadaily0.3%tradingbandbasedonthepriceofthepreviousday.Withit
7、srapiddevelopment,China’seconomyhasbecomeanincreasinglyimportantelementintheglobaleconomicdevelopmentandintegration.Againstthisbackdrop,theimpactsofRMB’sappreciationonChina’stradeattractgreatattention.BeforethisreformofRMB,therehasemergedavasttheoreticalliteratureconcentratedontheimp
8、actsofRMB’sr
