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1、HBRMAY-JUNE1994MAKINGSUPPLYMEETDEMANDINANUNCERTAINWORLDbyMarshallL.Fisher,JaniceH.Hammond,WalterR.Obermeyer,andAnanthRamanThankstoglobalcompetition,fasterproductde-ularproduction-schedulingsystem.Butquick-re-velopment,andincreasinglyflexiblemanufactur-sponseprograms,just-in-time(
2、IT)inventorysy
3、s-ingsystems,anunprecedentednumberandvarietytems,manufacturingresourceplanning,andtheofproductsarecompetinginmarketsrangingfromlikearcsimplynotuptothetask.Withatoollikeapparelandtoystopowertoolsandcomputers.De-manufacturingresourceplanning,forexample,aspitethebenefitstoconsumers,thisphenomenonm
4、anufacturercanrapidlychangetheproductionismakingitmoredifficultformanufacturersandschedulestoredinitscomputerwhenitsoriginalretailerstopredictwhichoftheirgoodswillsellforecastandplanproveincorrect.Creatinganewandtoplanproductionandordersaccordingly.scheduledoesn'thelp,though,ifthesupplychainAsa
5、result,inaccurateforecastsareincreasing,hasalreadybeenfilledbasedontheoldone.andalongwiththemthecostsofthoseerrors.Man-ufacturersandretailersalikeareendingupwithMarshallL.FisheiistheStephenJ.HeymanProfessormoreunwantedgoodsthatmustbemarkeddown-andcodirectoroftheManufacturingandLogisticsRe-perha
6、psevensoldataloss-evenastheylosepo-searchCenterattheUniversityofPennsylvania'sWhar-tonSchoolinPhiladelphia,faniceH.Hammondisasso-tentialsalesbecauseotherarticlesarcnolongerinciateprofessorattheHarvardBusinessSchoolandstock.Inindustrieswithhighlyvolatiledemand,cofounderoftheHarvardUniversityCent
7、erforTextilelikefashionapparel,thecostsofsuch"stockouts"andApparelResearchinBoston,Massachusetts.Wal-andmarkdownscanactuallyexceedthetotalcostterR.ObermeyerisaprincipalofSportObermeyer,ofmanufacturing,'Ltd..inAspen.Colorado,andagraduateoftheHarvardToaddresstheproblemofinaccurateforecasts,Busine
8、ssSchoolAnanthRamanisassistantprofessoratmanymanagershaveturnedtooneoranotherpop-theHarvardBusinessSchool.DRAWINGBYTERRYWIDENER83postponedecisionsabouttheirmostunpredictableitemsuntilresponsetheyhavesomemarketsignals,helpsretailer
