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1、IllicitFinancialFlowsFromDevelopingCountries:2001-2010DevKarandSarahFreitasDecember2012IllicitFinancialFlowsFromDevelopingCountries:2001-2010DevKarandSarahFreitas1December2012GlobalFinancialIntegrityWishestoThankTheFordFoundationforSupportingthisProject1DevKar,formerlyaSeniorEconomistattheIn
2、ternationalMonetaryFund(IMF),isLeadEconomistatGlobalFinancialIntegrity(GFI)andSarahFreitasisanEconomistatGFI.TheauthorswouldliketothankSimónRamírezAmaya,aninternatGFI,forassistancewithdataresearchaswellasRaymondBakerandotherstaffatGFIforhelpfulcomments.Anyerrorsthatremainaretheauthors’respon
3、sibility.WearepleasedtopresenthereouranalysisofIllicitFinancialFlowsFromDevelopingCountries:2001-2010.InourpreviousannualreportswehaveutilizedtheWorldBankResidualmodeladjustedfortrademispricing,presentedinbothgrossnon-normalizedandinfilterednormalizedcalculations.Inthisyear’sreportweareaddin
4、gasecondformofanalysis,theHotMoneyNarrowmodeladjustedfortrademispricing,againpresentedinnon-normalizedandnormalizedcalculations.Theresultsfor2010aresummarizedasfollows:WorldBankResidualPlusTradeMispricing,Non-NormalizedUS$1,138billionWorldBankResidualPlusTradeMispricing,NormalizedUS$892billi
5、onHotMoneyNarrowPlusTradeMispricing,Non-NormalizedUS$859billionHotMoneyNarrowPlusTradeMispricing,NormalizedUS$783billionTheconsiderationwhichledustoincludeasecondtypeofmeasureofillicitflowshastodowiththepotentialforsomeleveloflicitfinancialflowstoappearinthegapbetweenthesourceoffundsanduseof
6、funds.Thiswillbearfurtherexamination,aswecontinuetoaugmentouranalyticalmethodologies.Whatisperhapsmostimportanttoappreciateisthatnoneofourestimatesincludeseveralmajorcomponentsofillicitflows,suchassmuggling,cross-bordermovementsofcash,trademispricingthatoccursinthesameinvoiceexchangedbetween
7、importersandexporters,andthemispricingofallservicesandintangibleswhicharenotcoveredinIMFDirectionofTradeStatistics.Ifwehadreliablefiguresorestimatesontheseexclusions,withoutquestionourestimatesofillicitflowsfromemergingmarketanddevelopingcountriesw
