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1、TheworldeconomyhasnoeasywayoutofthemireMartinWolf2010-03-03Anybodywholookscarefullyattheworldeconomywillrecognisethatadegreeofmonetaryandfiscalstimulusunprecedentedinpeacetimeisallthatisproddingitalong,notonlyinhigh-incomecountries,butalsoinbigemergingones.Theconvent
2、ionalwisdomisthatitwillalsobepossibletomanageasmoothexit.Nothingseemslesslikely.Soletusconsidertheendgame,instead.Wemuststartfromthereversesideofthestimuluscoin:theprivatesectorisnowspendingfarlessthanitsaggregateincome.ForecastsintheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operati
3、onandDevelopment'slatestEconomicOutlookimplythatinsixofitsmembers(theNetherlands,Switzerland,Sweden,Japan,theUKandIreland)theprivatesectorwillrunasurplusofincomeoverspendinggreaterthan10percentofgrossdomesticproductthisyear.Another13willhaveprivatesurplusesbetween5pe
4、rcentand10percentofGDP.ThelatterincludestheUS,with7.3percent.Theeurozoneprivatesurpluswillbe6.7percentofGDPandthatoftheOECDasawhole7.4percent.Moreover,theshiftintheprivatesectorbalancebetween2007and2010isforecasttoexceed10percentofGDPinnofewerthaneightOECDmembercount
5、ries(seechart).Itisalsoforecasttoexceed5percentofGDPinanothereight.IntheUS,itisforecasttobe9.6percentofGDP.Intheeurozone,itisforecastat5.5percentofGDPandintheOECDat7.3percent.Depressionthreatened.Notethatsuchhugeshiftstowardsfrugalitywillhaveoccurred,despitetheunprec
6、edentedmonetaryloosening.Whilethelatterhelpedpreventastillgreatercollapseinprivatespending,thehugefiscaldeficits,largelytheresultofautomaticstabilisers,havebeennolessimportant.Ifgovernmentshadtriedtoclosefiscaldeficits,astheyattemptedtodointhe1930s,wewouldbeinanother
7、GreatDepression.Sohowdoweexit?Toanswerthequestion,weneedtoagreeonhowweentered.Abigpartoftheansweristhataseriesofbubbleshelpedkeeptheworldeconomydrivingforwardoverthepastthreedecades.Behindthese,however,layacreditsuper-bubble,whichburstin2008.Thisiswhyprivatespendingi
8、mplodedandfiscaldeficitsexploded.WilliamWhite,formerchiefeconomistoftheBankforInternationalSettlements,isaleadingproponentoftheview
