Chemical Industry

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1、Chemicals2006SecondQuarterOutlookIndustryRiskRating*U.S.3.9EMU4.3AsiaPacific3.5TopProducers2005ChemicalSales(US$,Bil.)1.BASF(Germany)50.42.DowChemical(U.S.)46.33.Bayer(Germany)32.34.DuPont(U.S.)26.65.Lyondell(U.S.)18.6MarketSnapshotRegionMarketDriversPricingPowerMainEnd-marketsRegulatoryImpactMarke

2、tStructureBiggestThreatU.S.Consumer/CorporateSpendingModerateConsumerGoodsConstructionBusinessEquipmentHighOligopolyRisingNaturalGas/CrudePricesWorldConsumer/CorporateSpendingModerateDiversifiedManufacturing/IndustrialsHighOligopolyRisingCrudePricesIndustryEventsandTrendstoWatchU.S.outputhasrebound

3、edfromthemajorsupplydisruptionscausedbythe2005hurricanes.Asiaex.JapanandtheMiddleEastcontinuetoleadtheworld’sgrowthfollowedbyEasternEurope,LatinAmericaandNAFTA.WesternEuropeandJapanareshowingmodestimprovement.Prices,whichsurgedtorecordlevelsintheaftermathofthehurricanesbutsubsequentlyweakened,areon

4、thereboundagainledbylowinventoriesandhighenergycosts.Thecapacitybuild-upinAsiaandtheMiddleEastisaggressivelymovingahead.WeexpectonlyminimalexpansioninNAFTA,WesternEurope,andJapan.*Compositeriskratingrangesfrom1to10with“1”representingtheleastriskand“10”thegreatestriskForecastOverviewandMarketRisksFo

5、llowinggrowthof4.5%in2004,worldpetrochemicalsvolumeexpandedjust1.7%in2005.Growthin2005wasseverelycrimpedbythetemporaryshutdownofalargeamountofNorthAmericanpetrochemicalcapacitylocatedintheU.S.Gulfasaresultofthemajorhurricanesthathitthearealastfall.U.S.productionhasreboundedsincethen,asphysicaldamag

6、etotheplantswaslight,whichmadeiteasierforthoseplantstoresumeoperationsoncelogisticalproblemswereresolved..Globally,thepetrochemicalindustry’sperformancehasbeenquiteuneveninthelastfewyears.ThankstoChina’sboomingeconomy,AsiaexcludingJapanhasledwithneardouble-digitvolumegrowth,followedbylowerbutsolidp

7、erformancebytheMiddleEastandEasternEurope.WesternEuropehaslaggedquiteabitwithdeclinesin2003and2004andonlymeagergrowthin2005.Japanhasalsodonepoorly,withdeclinesin2002-04andverymodestgrowthin2005.NorthAmerica