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1、HowInflationSwindlestheEquityInvestorThecentralprobleminthestockmarketisthatthereturnoncapitalhasn’trisenwithinflation.Itseemstobestuckat12percent.byWarrenE.Buffett,FORTUNEMay1977Itisnolongerasecretthatstocks,likebonds,dopoorlyinaninflationaryenvironment.Wehavebeeninsuchanenvironmentformostoft
2、hepastdecade,andithasindeedbeenatimeoftroublesforstocks.Butthereasonsforthestockmarket'sproblemsinthisperiodarestillimperfectlyunderstood.Thereisnomysteryatallabouttheproblemsofbondholdersinaneraofinflation.Whenthevalueofthedollardeterioratesmonthaftermonth,asecuritywithincomeandprincipalpayme
3、ntsdenominatedinthosedollarsisn'tgoingtobeabigwinner.YouhardlyneedaPh.D.ineconomicstofigurethatoneout.Itwaslongassumedthatstocksweresomethingelse.Formanyyears,theconventionalwisdominsistedthatstockswereahedgeagainstinflation.Thepropositionwasrootedinthefactthatstocksarenotclaimsagainstdollars,
4、asbondsare,butrepresentownershipofcompanieswithproductivefacilities.These,investorsbelieved,wouldretaintheirValueinrealterms,letthepoliticiansprintmoneyastheymight.Andwhydidn'titturnbutthatway?Themainreason,Ibelieve,isthatstocks,ineconomicsubstance,arereallyverysimilartobonds.Iknowthatthisbeli
5、efwillseemeccentrictomanyinvestors.Thaywillimmediatelyobservethatthereturnonabond(thecoupon)isfixed,whilethereturnonanequityinvestment(thecompany'searnings)canvarysubstantiallyfromoneyeartoanother.Trueenough.Butanyonewhoexaminestheaggregatereturnsthathavebeenearnedbycompa-niesduringthepostwary
6、earswilldis-coversomethingextraordinary:thereturnsonequityhaveinfactnotvariedmuchatall.ThecouponisstickyInthefirsttenyearsafterthewar-thedecadeendingin1955-theDowJonesindustrialshadanaverageannualreturnonyear-endequityof12.8percent.Intheseconddecade,thefigurewas10.1percent.Inthethirddecadeitwa
7、s10.9percent.Dataforalargeruniverse,theFORTUNE500(whosehistorygoesbackonlytothemid-1950's),indicatesomewhatsimilarresults:11.2percentinthedecadeendingin1965,11.8percentinthedecadethrough1975.Thefiguresforafewexceptionalyearshavebeensubs
