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1、DOTERMS-OF-TRADEEFFECTSMATTERFORTRADEAGREEMENTS?THEORYANDEVIDENCEFROMWTOCOUNTRIES*RodneyD.LudemaandAnnaMariaMaydaDownloadedfromInternationaltradeagreementsareanimportantelementoftheworldeco-nomicsystem,butquestionsremainastotheirpurpose.Theterms-of-trade
2、hypothesispositsthatcountriesusetariffsinparttoimprovetheirtermsoftradeandthattradeagreementscausethemtointernalizethecoststhatsuchterms-of-tradeshiftsimposeonothercountries.Thisarticleinvestigateshttp://qje.oxfordjournals.org/whetherthemost-favored-nati
3、on(MFN)tariffssetbyWorldTradeOrganization(WTO)membersintheUruguayRoundareconsistentwiththeterms-of-tradehypothesis.Wepresentamodelofmultilateraltradenegotiationsfeaturingendogenousparticipationthatleadstheresultingtariffschedulestodisplayterms-of-tradeef
4、fects.Specifically,themodelpredictsthattheleveloftheimporter’stariffresultingfromnegotiationsshouldbenegativelyrelatedtotheproductoftwoterms:exporterconcentration,asmea-suredbytheHerfindahl-Hirschmanindex(sumofsquaredexportshares),andtheimporter’smarketpow
5、er,asmeasuredbytheinverseelasticityofexportatShanghaiUniversityofFinanceandEconomicsonOctober17,2014supply,onaproduct-by-productbasis.Wetestthishypothesisusingdataontariffs,trade,andproductionacrossmorethan30WTOcountriesandfindstrongsupport.Weestimatethat
6、theinternalizationoftermsoftradeeffectsthroughWTOnegotiationshasloweredtheaveragetariffofthesecountriesby22%to27%comparedtoitsnoncooperativelevel.JELCodes:F1,F5.I.IntroductionInternationalagreementshavebeenakeyfactorintheexpansionofglobaltradeandinvestme
7、ntforthepasthalf-century.Butwhatexactlydotheyaccomplishthatcouldnotbeachievedbyunilateralpolicysetting?Oneviewisthatinterna-tionalagreementsremoveincentivesforcountriestopursuebeggar-thy-neighborpolicies.Agrowingbodyofliterature,ledbyBagwellandStaiger(20
8、02),arguesthattheWorldTrade*WethankMeredithCrowley,PeterEgger,LuigiGuiso,AndreasHaufler,NunoLima˜o,GiovanniMaggi,andRobertStaiger;seminarparticipantsatEnteEinaudi,Geneva,Milan,Michigan,Munich,Stanford,andUSITC;andconference
