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1、UseR!SeriesEditors:RobertGentlemanKurtHornikGiovanniParmigianiUseR!Albert:BayesianComputationwithRCook/Swayne:InteractiveandDynamicGraphicsforDataAnalysis:WithRandGGobiParadis:AnalysisofPhylogeneticsandEvolutionwithRPfaff:AnalysisofIntegratedandCointegratedTimeSerieswithRJimAlbertBayesianCom
2、putationwithRABCProfessorJimAlbertDepartmentofMathematicsandStatisticsBowlingGreenStateUniversityBowlingGreen,OH43403-0221USAalbert@bgnet.bgsu.eduSeriesEditors:RobertGentlemanKurtHornikPrograminComputationalBiologyDepartmentfur¨StatistikundMathematikDivisionofPublicHealthSciencesWirtschaftsu
3、niversitätWienAugasse2-6FredHutchinsonCancerResearchCenterA-1090Wien1100FairviewAve.N,M2-B876AustriaSeattle,Washington981029-1024USAGiovanniParmigianiTheSidneyKimmelComprehensiveCancerCenteratJohnsHopkinsUniversity550NorthBroadwayBaltimore,MD21205-2011USAISBN978-0-387-71384-7e-ISBN978-0-387-
4、71385-4LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2007929182©2007SpringerScience+BusinessMedia,LLCAllrightsreserved.Thisworkmaynotbetranslatedorcopiedinwholeorinpartwithoutthewrittenpermissionofthepublisher(SpringerScience+BusinessMedia,LLC,233SpringStreet,NewYork,NY10013,USA),exceptforbriefexcerptsinco
5、nnectionwithreviewsorscholarlyanalysis.Useinconnectionwithanyformofinformationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilarmethodologynowknownorhereafterdevelopedisforbidden.Theuseinthispublicationoftradenames,trademarks,servicemarks,andsimilarterms,evenif
6、theyarenotidentifiedassuch,isnottobetakenasanexpressionofopinionastowhetherornottheyaresubjecttoproprietaryrights.Printedonacid-freepaperrd9876543(corrected3printing,2008)springer.comPrefaceTherehasbeendramaticgrowthinthedevelopmentandapplicationofBayesianinferenceinstatistics.Berger(2000)do
7、cumentstheincreaseinBayesianactivitybythenumberofpublishedresearcharticles,thenumberofbooks,andtheextensivenumberofapplicationsofBayesianarticlesinapplieddisciplinessuchasscienceandengineering.OnereasonforthedramaticgrowthinBayesianmodelingistheava