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时间:2019-07-27
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1、STRATEGYANDTHEINTERNET:TRENDSANDPREDICTIONSRealTechConferencePeterStangerE-COMMERCEISDEAD“E-CommerceIsDead,LongLiveE-Commerce”TheIndustryStandard,April2000“Going,Going,Gone:Business-to-ConsumerSectorGoesBust”Forbes.com,April2000“Canyoubuildabrandonlinesellingthird-party
2、goods?Theanswerisno,eventhougheveryoneusedtothinktheanswerwasyes”BryanRutbert,WarburgDillonRead“Thelivingdeadhavegottenawaywithmurderbecausethepublicmarketshavefundedriskierventures.LookatAmazon.com-ifcouldbethebiggestlivingdeadthepublicmarketshaveeverseen.”WarrenPackard
3、,DraperFisherJurvetsonTOMSIEBELCEO,SiebelSystems“Ifyoucan’tgenerateprofits,significantmarketshareandcustomersatisfaction,youreoutofbusiness.”“OntheB2Bexchangeside,Idon’tthinkanyonewillsurvive.Theyareallgone.”THECAPITALMARKETSHADITALLWRONGTravelocityBarnsandnobel.comExpe
4、diaDrugstore.comEgghead.comPricelineeBayAmazon$123BWebvaneBayAmazonAllOther$11.4BISTHEREVOLUTIONOVER?July28,1794THEBUMPYRIDEOFECONOMICREVOLUTIONS1860-18901895-1925FUNDAMENTALFORCESAREATWORK120100804060200177017801775IndexWorkersperbushelofmanufacturedcottonEngland1770-83
5、PriceoftheModelTtouringcar1908-20191019151920198519901995PriceofCPUcomputingpower$/MIPS1982-95Lowerprocessingcosts...…withincreasedthroughput...FibercapacityTime1050104103102…andpowerfulnetworkeconomics020406080100012345678910nValueincreasesasthesquareofconnectionsProfi
6、tLossValueCost02v6v12v20v30v42v56v72v90vn(n-1)vF+0F+2cF+3cF+4cF+5cF+6cF+7cF+8cF+9cF+10cF+ncValue,costConnectionsCostincreaseslinearlywithconnections…lowerstoragecosts...$/MBAverageHDsizeinPCatretail(GB)Harddrivesize(GB)Cost($/MB)LONGDISTANCEWholesale(Network)Design/bui
7、ldOperations/maintenanceResale/interconnectionRetailSales/marketingAccountmanagementBillingRetailSales/marketingAccountmanagementBillingNetworkDesign/buildOperations/maintenanceResale/interconnectionRetailRetailNetworkintelligenceValueaddedservicesWholesaleservicecreatio
8、nNetworkintelligenceValueaddedservicesNetworkmanagement/dispatchWholesalePHARMACEUTICALSResearchDevelop
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