Winners_and_losers_in_Chinas_next_decade

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1、JUNE2013WinnersandlosersinChina’snextdecadeMichaelPettisThemovefrominvestmenttoconsumptionwilldrivesomeindustriesforward,whilehamperingothers.ItisnotenoughforglobalbusinessestoknowthatincomingyearsChina’seconomywillmoveawayfromanoverrelianceoninvestmentandtowardmoreconsumption.Theyalsomustk

2、nowthatthepotentialcostsandbenefitsofrebalancingtheworld’ssecond-largesteconomyarehighandwillaffectindustriesnotonlydomesticallybutalsoaroundtheworld.ThedegreeofimpactdependslargelyonthepoliciesthatBeijingchoosestoimplement.WhileChina’sleadership—underbothPresidentXiJinpingandhispredecessor

3、,HuJintao—hasmadeitclearthatitunderstandstherisksofrebalancing,theprocesswon’tbeeasy.Companiesmustbeready.Thereasonforrebalancingisobvious.Thesharpincreasesininvest-mentthathavedrivenChina’srapideconomicgrowthforthepast30yearsarenotsustainable,andconsumerscan’tprovideadditionaldemandunlessw

4、ealthisredistributedtowardChinesehouseholds.Themostobviousconsequenceofrebalancingisthatitwillresultinmuchslowergrowthoverthemediumterm.Whilemanyecono-mistsnowprojectthataverageannualeconomicgrowthwillfalltobetween5and7percentayearduringthenextdecade,Iexpectittoslowevenmore,perhapsto3to4per

5、centayear.Inmodernhistory,nocountrythathasexperiencedaninvestment-drivengrowth“miracle”hasavoidedaslowdown(suchasJapan’safter1990)thatsurprisedeventhepessimists,anditishardtofindgoodreasonstothinkChinawillbeanexception.2Ifconsumptionistogrowenoughasasourceofdemandtoreplaceinvestment—inother

6、words,toforceuphouseholdincomeasashareofGDP—Beijingmustreversepolicies,suchaskeepingthecurrencyundervaluedanddepressinginterestrates,thatforthepastthreedecadeshavesubsidizedinvestmentbyconstrainingthegrowthofhouseholdincome.Thegovernmentmustpursuesuchpolicieswhilereconcilingthecountry’sconf

7、lictinginterests,includingthoseofthepowerfulgroups,sectors,andcompaniesthathavebenefitedthemostfromChina’sinvestment-intensivegrowthmodel,especiallyfromaccesstoartificiallycheapcredit.Asaresult,manybusinessesinChinaandaroundtheworldwillthrive,whileothers