why-countries-succeed-and-fail-economically--ray-dalio-bridgewater

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1、WhyCountriesSucceedandFailEconomicallyRayDalioJune,2011Thisstudylooksathowdifferentcountries’sharesoftheworldeconomyhavechangedandwhythesechangeshaveoccurred,withaparticularemphasisontheperiodsince1820.Asexplainedinthisstudy,therisesanddeclinesincountries’

2、sharesoftheworldeconomyoccurasaresultofverylong-termcyclesthatarenotapparenttoobserverswholookateconomicconditionsfromaclose-upperspective.Tobegin,let’slookathowtheworldeconomicpiehasbeendividedupovertimeandwhyithaschanged.Thetablebelowshowsthesharesofworl

3、dGDPbymajorcountriesand/orregionsatvariouspointsintimegoingbackto1500.Scanthattabletoseehowtheseshareshaveevolvedovertime.ShareofWorldGDP.Real,PPPAdjusted.Year15001600170018201870191319501973199820062010CurrentDevelopedWorld2123272946587270635853US00029193

4、025242321UnitedKingdom12359885443OtherWesternEurope1718201825252626221917Japan33432339987Canada/Australia00001354444CurrentEmergingWorld7877737154422830374247China252922331792281115India2523241612843567OtherAsia13111177534788LatinAmerica312235791099Russia3

5、4458977333Africa77754311111EasternEurope33334544444Thoughthetablegoesbackto1500–i.e.,toeightyearsafter"ColumbusdiscoveredAmerica"–wewon’tthtrackthechangessincethen,butwewilltrackthembacktothemid-19century.Asshowninthecolumnsstartingin1820youmighthavenotice

6、dthat:•In1820ChinaandIndiawerethebiggesteconomicpowers.Theirsharesdeclinedasthey1becamedecadentandoverlyindebted.Asaresulttheywereovertaken,botheconomicallyandththmilitarilybytheemergingBritishEmpireinthelate19andearly20century.thth•Fromthesecondhalfofthe1

7、9centuryuntiltheearly20centuryEnglandandotherWesternEuropeancountriesemergedtobecometheworld’sdominantpowersandtheUnitedStatesmovedfrombeinganundevelopedcountrytoanemergingcountry.TheemergenceoftheBritishEmpireandotherEuropeanpowerstodominancewasfueledbytw

8、obigwavesofproductivitygrowthcalledtheIndustrialRevolution.1By“decadent”wemeanalessstrongstatearisingfromashiftingofprioritiesfromworking,fightingandcompetingtoavoidingtheseandtosavoringthefruitsoflife.©2012B