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1、TheRe-emergenceofEuropeProfessorKlausSchwabFounderandExecutiveChairmanoftheWorldEconomicForum2TheRe-emeRgenceofeuRopeTABLEOFCONTENTS1.INTRODUCTION52.ASHORTHISTORYOFEUROPE93.DECLINE173.1.TheDebtOverhang183.2.TheBankingCrisisandItsCollateralEffects233.3.TheCompetitivenessDefici
2、t293.4.InstitutionalFailure353.5.TheDisintegrationofCommonValues393.6.TheErosionofGlobalCredibility434.RE-EMERGENCE454.1.ExitingtheEuro:ABad“Good”Idea464.2.FiscalDisciplineandEconomicGrowth504.3.RebalancingandConditionsforSustainedGrowth544.4.RestoringEurope’sCompetitiveness6
3、04.5.StrengtheningEuropeanInstitutions664.6.ReintegratingEurope’sYouth684.7.NurturinganIdealandRebuildingaGlobalBrand734.8.Progress?775.CONCLUSION83NOTES87TheRe-emeRgenceofeuRope34TheRe-emeRgenceofeuRope1.INTRODUCTIONEuropehasreachedacriticaltippingpoint.Itfaceseitherdisinteg
4、rationandcollapseorachancetoachievedeeperintegrationandemergemuchstrongerfromthecurrentcrisis.Forthemoment,theEuropeanprojectofintegrationishaltedmidstream:betweentheoldcollectionofnation-statesandfullEurope-anpoliticalunion.Intheyearstocome,amultitudeofscenariosandvariations
5、rangingfromadisorderlycollapsetoaflamboyant“resurrection”arepossible,manyofwhich,withhindsight,willsurpriseus–possiblyontheupside.Evenintheworst-casescenario,a“Europe”andinstitutionsreferredtoasthe“EuropeanUnion”willremain.MyownprudentpredictionforEuropeisthatitwillmanagethro
6、ughtheturmoil,withtheeurointact,evenifoneoreventwocountriesweretoleavetheeurozone.Basedontheanalysislaidoutinthisbook,myfirmandoptimisticbeliefisthat,oncethecrisissubsides,whichmaytakeuptoadecade,Europewillregainitsmomentum,propelledbyarenewedsenseofmissionamongpoliticiansand
7、policy-makerstokeepthisdecades-longprojectontrackandmovingforward.Despitethecurrentuncertainty,twothingsremainbeyonddoubt:(1)thisprob-lemhasnoquickfixoreasysolution,and(2)astheworld’slargesteconomybygrossdomesticproduct(GDP),whateverhappenstotheeurozonemattersenormouslytother
8、estoftheworld.ThustheEuropeancrisiswill,toagreaterorlesserextent,dom
