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1、ARTICLEINPRESSEnergyPolicy33(2005)1409–1424PrimaryenergydemandinJapan:anempiricalanalysisoflong-termtrendsandfutureCO2emissionsab,LesterC.Hunt,YasushiNinomiya*aSurreyEnergyEconomicsCentre(SEEC),DepartmentofEconomics,UniversityofSurrey,GuildfordGU27XH,UKbInstituteforGlobalEnvironmentalStr
2、ategies(IGES),2108-11Kamiyamaguchi,Hayama,Kanagawa240-0115,JapanAbstractThispaperexaminesthelong-runrelationshipbetweenenergydemand,GNPandtherealenergypriceinJapanusingdatacovering1887–2001.Itisfoundthat,ifanUnderlyingEnergyDemandTrendisappropriatelyincorporated,theresultingeconometricmo
3、delproducesalong-runincomeelasticityofaboutunityandalong-runpriceelasticityofabout–0.2.TheestimatedmodelisutilisedtoforecastenergyconsumptionandCO2emissionsupto2012.ItisshownthatgivencurrenteconomicconditionsandpoliciesthereisconsiderableuncertaintyaboutwhetherJapanwillbeabletomeetitsKyo
4、totargetbyreducingCO2emissionsin2008–2012tothe1990level.ItisshownthatthisuncertaintydependsonthestrengthoftheeconomyandleavestheJapanesegovernmentwithadifficultpolicydilemma.Ifthereisaresurgenceingrowthtosomethingneartheannualaveragegrowthratesincetheearly1980saconsiderableeffortwillbereq
5、uiredinordertomeetitsKyototarget;requiringnotonlyusingtheKyotoMechanisms,butalsoadditionaltougherdomesticpoliciesandmeasuressuchasemissionscapping,R&Dincentives,andeducationforenergyconservationinadditiontoapricingandtaxpolicy.r2004ElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved.JELclassification:C51;C53;Q
6、41;Q58Keywords:Japan;Energydemand;CO2emissions1.IntroductionEnergyconsumptioninJapanhasalsorisendrasti-callyoverthepasthundredyears.Between1900andForthepastonehundredyears,Japanhasexperi-2000,primaryenergyconsumptionpercapitaexpandedenceddramaticchangesineconomicandsocialstruc-byabout18t
7、imes,from2.4millionkcalto44.0million1ture.People’slifestyles,aswellasinitspoliticalsystem,kcal.Thisgrowthwasalsomuchfasterthanotherhavechangedbeyondallrecognition.Between1900andOECDcountries.Primaryenergyconsumptioninthe2000realpercapitaGNPinJapanincreasedbyover15UK,forin
