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1、UNITEDNATIONSPRESSRELEASEEMBARGOEDUNTIL3MAY2011,11:00A.M.,NEWYORKTIMEWorldPopulationtoreach10billionby2100ifFertilityinallCountriesConvergestoReplacementLevelUNITEDNATIONS,3MAY–Thecurrentworldpopulationofcloseto7billionisprojectedtoreach10.1billioninthenextninetyyears,reac
2、hing9.3billionbythemiddleofthiscentury,accordingtothemediumvariantofthe2010RevisionofWorldPopulationProspects,theofficialUnitedNationspopulationprojectionspreparedbythePopulationDivisionoftheDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs,whichisbeinglaunchedtoday.Muchofthisincreasei
3、sprojectedtocomefromthehigh-fertilitycountries,whichcomprise39countriesinAfrica,nineinAsia,sixinOceaniaandfourinLatinAmerica.Smallvariationsinfertilitycanproducemajordifferencesinthesizeofpopulationsoverthelongrun.Thehighprojectionvariant,whosefertilityisjusthalfachildabov
4、ethatinthemediumvariant,producesaworldpopulationof10.6billionin2050and15.8billionin2100.Thelowvariant,whosefertilityremainshalfachildbelowthatofthemedium,producesapopulationthatreaches8.1billionin2050anddeclinestowardsthesecondhalfofthiscenturytoreach6.2billionin2100.Forlo
5、ng-termtrendsthemediumvariantistakenasreference.Themedium-variantprojectionfor2050ismorecertainthanfor2100becausepeoplewhowillbe40yearsandolderin2050arealreadyborn.Accordingtothemediumvariant,itwilltake13yearstoaddtheeighthbillion,18yearstoaddtheninthbillionand40yearstorea
6、chthetenthbillion.Accordingtothehighvariant,anadditionalbillionwouldbeaddedevery10or11yearsfortherestofthiscentury.Currentfertilitylevelsvarymarkedlyamongcountries.Today,42percentoftheworld’spopulationlivesinlow-fertilitycountries,thatis,countrieswherewomenarenothavingenou
7、ghchildrentoensurethat,onaverage,eachwomanisreplacedbyadaughterwhosurvivestotheageofprocreation.Another40percentlivesinintermediate-fertilitycountrieswhereeachwomanishaving,onaverage,between1and1.5daughters,andtheremaining18percentlivesinhigh-fertilitycountrieswheretheaver
8、agewomanhasmorethan1.5daughters(seemap).High-fertilitycountriesaremostlyconcentratedinAfr
