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1、HousinginaNeoclassicalGrowthModelBinLiChinaCenterforEconomicResearchPekingUniversityPreliminaryDraft,May2007AbstractAsimplesocial-planningtwo-sectorgeneralequilibiummodelwithresidentialhous-ingenteringutilityfunctionisanalysedwithemphasisonlocaldynamics.Conditonsforsaddlepathstabilityareli
2、stedandtheirplausibilityislikelytopasstestingbasedoncalibrationresults.Keywords:Two-sectormodels;Dynamicstability;Housing1IntroductionThereisincreasingrecognitionontheimportanceoftheinterplaybetweenhousingmarketsandthemacroeconomy.However,fullanalysesonhousingfromanaggregateperspectivebymai
3、nstreammacroeconomicsaresurprisinglyscarce,whileconventionalhousingeco-nomicstendstobelimitedtourbanscope.Thispapertriestojoinintherecentlysmallyetgrowingmacro-housingliteraturewhichbordersonbothmacroeconomyandrealestateresearch.Leung(2004)providesaselectivesurveyinthis…eld.Existingresearch
4、e¤ortsmainlyfocusontherelationshipbetweenhousingandtaxation(TurnovskyandOkuyama1994,BerkovecandFullerton1992),betweenhousingandbusinesscycles(DavisandHeathcote2005,GreenwoodandHercowitz1991,JinandZeng2004,Matsuyama1990),andbetweenpolicyandrealestate(JinandZeng2007).Thispapercutsinfromadi¤er
5、entperspective:what’sthequalitativee¤ectthateconomicfundamentalshaveonhousingmarket,particularly,onhousingprice?Willhousingpricechangeindeterminatelylikeabubble?Wepresentasociallyplanningtwo-sectorgeneralequilibiummodelwithresidentialhousingenteringutilityfunction,whichisrelatedtoTurnovskya
6、ndOkuyama(1994).Thesubsequentanalysishasconnectionswithtwo-sectortransitionaldynamicsliterature(Bondetal.1996,MulliganandSala-I-Martin1993,EicherandTurnovsky2001,HerrendorfandValentinyi2006),sincelocaldynamicstabilityisessentialforprovidingananswertotheabovequestions.We…ndthathousingPh.Dca
7、ndidate,ChinaCenterforEconomicResearch,PekingUniversity,P.R.China.Email:li-bin2005@pku.edu.cnpriceinbalancedgrowthpathrepondstoeconomicfundamentalsinthewaycateringtocommonsenseandissaddlepathstableundercertainconditions,whoseplausibilityistestedusingcali
