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1、ComplementaritiesbetweenExportsandHumanCapitalinEconomicGrowth:EvidencefromtheSemi-industrializedCountries*AndrewLevinFederalReserveBoardofGovernorsLakshmiK.RautUniversityofHawaiiatManoaI.IntroductionExportorientationandhumancapitalinvestmenthavebothreceivedwidespreadattentionin
2、theliteratureoneconomicgrowth.Overthepastseveraldecades,numerousresearchershavemodeledexportsasanen-gineofeconomicgrowth,withthepresumptionthathigherexportscanleadtogreatercapacityutilization,economiesofscale,adoptionofmoreef®cienttechnology,orhigherforeignexchangeinordertoimpor
3、tsupe-riorcapitalgoodsandrawmaterials.Recently,R.E.Lucas,Jr.,andC.AzariadisandA.Drazen,amongothers,havebuilttheoreticalmodelsinwhichsustainedlong-rungrowthisdrivenbythehumancapitalin-1vestmentofoptimizinghouseholds.Thistheoreticalresearchhasalsogeneratedrenewedinterestincross-co
4、untrygrowthregressionsdesignedtoevaluatetheempiricalsigni®canceofvariousstructuralandpolicyin-dicators.Inarecentreviewoftheempiricalliterature,R.LevineandD.ReneltanalyzedthedeterminantsoftheaverageannualgrowthrateofGDPpercapitaforasampleof101countriesovertheperiod1960±2389.Byapp
5、lyingthemethodofextremeboundsanalysis,LevineandReneltdemonstratedthatthestatisticalsigni®canceofnearlyeverystruc-turalandpolicyindicatorishighlysensitivetotheinclusionofadditionalexplanatoryvariables.Theonlyvariablesfoundtopossessfairlyrobustpredictivepowerweretherateofinvestmen
6、t,thegrowthrateofinterna-tionaltrade,andtheinitiallevelofrealGDPpercapita.However,twocriticalissueshaveremainedunresolvedconcerningtheroleofexportsandhumancapitalinthedeterminationoflong-runeconomicgrowth.First,whileLevineandReneltfoundahighlyrobustrelationshipã1997byTheUniversi
7、tyofChicago.Allrightsreserved.0013-0079/98/4601-0006$02.00156EconomicDevelopmentandCulturalChangebetweenGDPgrowthandthegrowthrateofinternationaltrade,thechannelsthroughwhichtradein¯uencesGDPgrowthremainunclear.Threedifferentmeasuresofthegrowthrateofinternationaltrade(i.e.,totale
8、xports,totalimports,andtotaltrade)haveanearlyid
