Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises

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1、InternationalTaxandPublicFinance,6,459–472(1999)°c1999KluwerAcademicPublishers,Boston.ManufacturedinTheNetherlands.BalanceSheets,theTransferProblem,andFinancialCrisesPAULKRUGMANkrugman@mit.eduMIT,DepartmentofEconomics,Cambridge,MA02139AbstractInaworldofhighcapitalmobility,th

2、ethreatofspeculativeattackbecomesacentralissueofmacroeconomicpolicy.While“first-generation”and“second-generation”modelsofspeculativeattacksbothhaveconsiderablerelevancetoparticularfinancialcrisesofthe1990s,a“third-generation”modelisneededtomakesenseofthenumberandnatureoftheeme

3、rgingmarketcrisesof1997–98.Mostoftherecentattemptstoproducesuchamodelhavearguedthatthecoreoftheproblemliesinthebankingsystem.Thispapersketchesanothercandidateforthird-generationcrisismodeling—onethatemphasizestwofactsthathavebeenomittedfromformalmodelstodate:theroleofcompani

4、es’balancesheetsindeterminingtheirabilitytoinvest,andthatofcapitalflowsinaffectingtherealexchangerate.Keywords:currencycrises,balancesheets,capitalflowsJELCode:F31,F32,F41Forthefoundingfathersofcurrency-crisistheory—afraternityamongwhomBobFloodholdsaplaceofhighhonor—theemergin

5、gmarketcrisesof1997–8inspirebothasenseofvindicationandasenseofhumility.Ononeside,thenumberandseverityofthesecriseshasdemonstratedinadevastatinglythoroughwaytheimportanceofthesubject;inaworldofhighcapitalmobility,itisnowclear,thethreatofspeculativeattackbecomesacentralissue—i

6、ndeed,forsomecountriesthecentralissue—ofmacroeconomicpolicy.Ontheotherside,evenacasuallookatrecenteventsrevealstheinadequacyofexistingcrisismodels.True,theAsiancrisishassettledsomedisputes—asIwillarguebelow,itdecisivelyresolvestheargumentbetween“fundamentalist”and“self-fulfil

7、ling”crisisstories.(Iwaswrong;MauryObstfeldwasright).Butithasalsoraisednewquestions.Onewaytodescribetheproblemistothinkintermsofthecelebrated(Eichengreen,Rose,andWyplosz,1995)distinctionbetween“first-generation”and“second-generation”crisismodels.First-generationmodels,exempli

8、fiedbyKrugman(1979)andthemuchcleanerpaperbyFloodandGarber(1984),ineffectexpl