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1、Availableonlineatwww.sciencedirect.comProcediaEngineering49(2012)3–9EvolvingEnergy-IEFInternationalEnergyCongress(IEF-IEC2012)ACGEapproachtotheanalysisofbiofuelsforpromotingenergyselfsufficiencyandsecuritypolicyinThailandResultsanddiscussionabSuthinWian
2、wiwatandJohnAsafu-Adjaye,aEsaanCenterforBusinessandEconomicResearch,FacultyofManagementScience,KhonKaenUniversity,Thailand40002bSchoolofEconomics,TheUniversityofQueensland,Brisbane,QLD4072,AustraliaththElsevieruseonly:Revised30July2012;accepted25August2
3、012Abstractrenewableenergydevelopmentplan.Thisplanaimstoincreasedomesticenergyusefromrenewablesourcestoreplacefossilfuelimports.Thestudysimulatedspecificpoliciescontainedintheplan.Amongotherthings,wefoundthatpromotingbiofuelusecausesarapidincreaseinthep
4、riceofbiofuelandbiofuelfeedstockintheshortrun,whereasthesepricesonlyincreaseslightlyinthelongrunduetomoreelasticsupplies.Furthermore,thepricesoffoodincludingotherproductsmarginallyincrease,implyingthatfoodsecurityisnotunderminedbythepolicy.Onthebasisoft
5、hefindings,thestudyrecommendsreviewofsomeofthetargetsbecausetheywerefoundtobetoohigh,andaphasinginofothers.©2012ElsevierLtd....Selectionandpeer-reviewunderresponsibilityoftheRMITUniversity©2012TheAuthors.PublishedbyElsevierLtd.Selectionand/orpeer-review
6、underresponsibilityoftheInternationalEnergyFoundationKeywords:CGEmodel;energypolicy;biofuels;Thailand1.IntroductionThegovernmentofThailand,throughits15-yearrenewableenergydevelopmentplan(2008-2022)[1],planstoincreasedomesticalternativeenergyusetoreplace
7、fossilfuelimports.Toreachthetargetsthathavebeenadopted,therewouldbeaneedtoincreaseelectricityfrombiomassandotherrenewablesources.Inthispaper,weanalyzevariousscenariosrepresentingvariousaspectsoftheplananddiscusstheimplicationsforpolicy.Thepaperisorganiz
8、edasfollows.Section2describesthesimulationscenariosanalysed,whilesection3presentstheresultsanddiscussion.Thisincludestheshort-runandlong-runmacroeconomicimpacts,aswellastheshort-runandlong-runsectoralimpacts.Thepaperconcludeswith
