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《20130813-Merrill Lynch-Global Fund Manager Survey》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。
1、GlobalFundManagerSurveyInvestmentStrategy
2、Global13August2013Buythe"CrashTestDummies"MichaelHartnett+16468551508ChiefInvestmentStrategistMLPF&SBottomline:buythe"CrashTestDummies"¢michael.hartnett@baml.comInourview,thesummerdeclineinbonds,EM&gold(thefirstofalikelyseriesof“QE
3、crashes”)hascreatedshort-termtradingbuyopportunitiesinthesenowveryunlovedassets;incontrast,strong$-plays(US/UKstocks,banks,discretionary)nowappearrelativelyover-ownedandlikelyunderperformersnear-term.Mostarebullishonglobalgrowth…Net72%expectstrongerglobaleconomy,mostbullis
4、hgrowthconsensussinceDec'09,asEurozoneoptimismreaches9-yearhighandChinaexpectationsbounce.…rotationtoCyclicals,butstillshortResourcesIncreasedexposuretoBanksandshort-coveringinMaterials,fundedbyreducedexposuretotheUtilitysector.Techtheworld'ssectorandinvestorsappearconvinc
5、edthatUS-housingislikelytooutperformChina-housing(Chart1).Clicktheimageabovetowatchthevideo.MostarebearishonBonds…TreasurieslikelytorallyAremarkablylow3%ofinvestorsexpectlong-termbondyieldstobelowerin12NotestoReadersmonths;nosurpriseassetallocationexposuretobondsata28-mont
6、hlow;fixedSourceforalltablesandcharts:incomeconcernsmayexplainwhycashlevelsarestill-highat4.5%.BofAMerrillLynchFundManagerSurvey,DatastreamMostareavoidingEmergingMarkets…EMlikelytorallyndth3rdlargestOWofUSequitiesin10-yearsasUS$optimismremainsveryhigh;Surveyperiod2to8Augus
7、t2013.highestexposuretoUK&EurozonestockssinceDec'02&Jan'08respectively;Anoveralltotalof229panellistswithcontrariansshouldnotedeclineinEMequityexposuretolowestsinceNov'01.$671bnAUMparticipatedinthesurvey.ThebestAugustcontrariantradesare…180participantswith$516bnAUM…longEM,s
8、hortUS;longGold,short$;longBonds,shortNasdaq;longUtilities,respondedtoGlobalFMSquestionsandshortBanks.112participantswith$290bnAUMrespondedtoRegionalFMSquestions.Chart1:Globalassetclasspositioningrelativetohistory*DiscretionaryHowtojointheFMSpanelUSGlobalFMSpositioningBank
9、srelativetohistory(z-score)ClientsareencouragedtoparticipateinUKEquitiestheSurvey.Thiscan
