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1、ElectricCars165ElectricCarsasaWidespreadMeansofTransportationRickBaileyBrendaHowellZacharyStankoHumboldtStateUniversityArcata,CAAdvisor:BradFinneySummaryWeadaptaaLotka-Volterraecologicalcompetitionmodeltodescribethecar(andlighttruck)market.Weassumethatgasoline-poweredin-ternalcombust
2、ionenginevehicles(ICE),plug-inhybridvehicles(PHEV),andbattery-electricvehicles(BEVs)performlikeorganismscompetingforasharedbutlimitedresource.Fororganisms,thisresourcemightbeafoodsupply;inthecarmarket,manufacturerscompeteforconsumerdollars.Theequationsdescribetheratesofchangeofthreed
3、ependentvariables,thepopulationsofcarsofeachtype.Themodelparametersdescribegrowthrates,interspeciescompetition,andcarryingcapacities,whichindirectlyre-latetoconsumerpreferences,economicconditions,governmentinfluences,andimprovementsinautomotivetechnologies.Variablesandparametersusedin
4、themodelarelistedinwww.madio.netTable1.Weassumethatintrinsicgrowthratesareconstant,butrefinementstothe数学中国modelcoulddescribethemasfunctionsoftime,marketforces,orstochasticvariables.Weassumethatthecarryingcapacitygrowsat1%,consistentwiththehumanpopulationgrowthrateoftheU.S.[TheWorldBan
5、kGroup2011].Welumptogethermodelparameters,withdeterministicvariablesreflectingallaspectsinfluencingconsumerchoice.Weinvestigatefivescenariosofchangesinconditionsaffectingtheautomarket.Abasescenariousescurrentyearlygrowthratesandcurrentpop-ulations;othersinvestigateeffectsofhighoilprices
6、,increasedbatteryper-formance,governmentinvestment,andhighelectricityrates.TheUMAPJournal32(2)(2011)165–178.cCopyright2011byCOMAP,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Permissiontomakedigitalorhardcopiesofpartorallofthisworkforpersonalorclassroomuseisgrantedwithoutfeeprovidedthatcopiesarenotmadeordi
7、stributedforprofitorcommercialadvantageandthatcopiesbearthisnotice.Abstractingwithcreditispermitted,butcopyrightsforcomponentsofthisworkownedbyothersthanCOMAPmustbehonored.Tocopyotherwise,torepublish,topostonservers,ortoredistributetolistsrequirespriorpermissionfromCOMAP.166TheUMAPJou
8、rnal32.2(201
