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1、China&WorldEconomy/67–84,Vol.19,No.5,201167InflationandEconomicGrowthinChina:AnEmpiricalAnalysisJen-TeHwang,Ming-JiaWu*AbstractUsingofficialprovincialdataforgrossprovincialproduct,consumerpriceindexandotherexplanatoryvariablesfrom1986to2006,thepresentpaperinvestigatesthenonlineareffe
2、ctsofinflationoneconomicgrowthinChina.ThemainfindingofthestudyisthattheinflationthresholdeffectishighlysignificantandrobustinChina.Abovethe2.50percentthreshold,every1-percentagepointincreaseintheinflationrateimpedeseconomicgrowthby0.61percent;belowthisthreshold,every1-percentagepoint
3、increaseintheinflationratestimulatesgrowthby0.53percent.Thisindicatesthathighinflationharmseconomicgrowth,whereasmoderateinflationbenefitsgrowth.WesuggestthatChinashouldmaintainamoderateinflationrateforlong-rungrowth.Keywords:China,growth,inflation,nonlinearity,thresholdeffectJELcode
4、s:C33,E31,O53I.IntroductionPersistentgrowthwithpricestabilityistheprimarypurposeofmacroeconomicpolicy.Economistsbroadlyagreethatlowbutpositiveinflationishelpfulforeconomicdevelopment.Inflationmay“greasethewheels”ofthelabormarket,butitcausesmenucostsandpricedistortion.Therefore,theque
5、stionarisesof“Howmuchinflationisgoodforeconomicgrowth?”Since1980,Chinahassufferedfourperiodsofmajorinflation,wheretheyearlyinflationratehasbeenabove5percent.Eachoftheseepisodeshassignificantlythreatenedeconomicgrowth.Highinflationin1980,1985,1988and1994wasfollowedbyaslowdownofeconomi
6、cgrowthinthefollowingyear.Thegrowthratesforthese4yearswere7.8,13.5,11.3and*Jen-TeHwang,Professor,DepartmentofBankingandFinance,KainanUniversity,Taoyuan,Taiwan.Email.jhwang@nccu.edu.tw;Ming-JiaWu,PhDcandidate,DepartmentofEconomics,NationalChengchiUniversity,Taipei,Taiwan.Email:9526000
7、5@nccu.edu.tw.©2011TheAuthorsChina&WorldEconomy©2011InstituteofWorldEconomicsandPolitics,ChineseAcademyofSocialSciences68Jen-TeHwang,Ming-JiaWu/67–84,Vol.19,No.5,201112.6percent,respectively,butgrowthslumpedto5.2,8.8,4.1and10.5percent,respectively,intheyearsimmediatelyfollowingeachof
8、thefourhighi
