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1、UrbanStudies,Vol.39,No.12,2219–2235,2002TheDeterminantsofTemporaryRural-to-UrbanMigrationinChinaHaizhengLiandStevenZahniser[Paperreceivedinnalform,May2002]Summary.Thispaperevaluatestheimpactofvariousexplanatoryfactorsontemporaryrural-to-urbanmigrationinChinausingaserieso
2、fprobitmodelsofthemigrationdecision.Theempiricalbasisofthisworkisasampleof11924individuals,age16–35years,drawnfromthe1995dataoftheChineseHouseholdIncomeProject(CHIP).Wendthattheprolesformigration-ageandmigration-educationarebothquadratic,withtheleast-educatedandmost-educ
3、atedmembersofruralsocietybeinglesslikelytomigrate.Inaddition,themarginaleffectofeducationtendstobehigherformenthanforwomen.Anincreaseinfarmingincomereducestheprobabilityofmigration,whiletheamountoflandcontrolledbyahouseholddoesnothaveasignicanteffectonmigrationinmostprov
4、inces.1.IntroductionAmongalltheeconomicchangesunderwayurbanarea.SuchmigrationhasimportantinruralChina,thelarge-scalemigrationofimplicationsfortheChineseeconomy.Itin-labourtourbanareasisofparticularimport-creasesthelaboursupplyinurbanareasandance.Millionsoffarmershavemove
5、dtoraisestheproductivityofmigrantsbyshift-urbanareastoseekemployment,sometem-ingthemtohigher-productivityurbanjobs.porarilyandothersonamorepermanentAtthesametime,temporarymigrationin-basis.Basedonofcialdatafor1996,aboutcreasestheeconomicviabilityofruralhouse-40millionrur
6、allabourerswereemployedinholdsandslowstheexodustourbanareas.otherareas(BeijingStatisticalBureau,Althoughtemporarymigrationmayreduce1997).WangandZuo(1999)estimatethattheamountoflabourandhumancapitalallo-one-fthofthepopulationinChina’slargestcatedtoagriculturalproduction,i
7、tisalsocitiesconsistsofmigrants.possiblethatsuchmigrationmayboostruralThispaperfocusesonthetemporaryproductivity.Thisperspective,stressedbymigrationofpersonsfromruralareaswhothe‘neweconomics’ofmigration(Stark,leavetheirhouseholdsforatleastonemonth,1991;TaylorandMartin,20
8、01),suggestseithertoworkortosearchforworkinanthatremittancesfrommigrantsallowruralHaizhengLiisintheScho
