Quantitative Evaluation of Idealized Models in the New Classical Macroeconomics

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1、KevinD.HooverQUANTITATIVEEVALUATIONOFII>EALIZEDMODELSINTHENEWCLASSICALMACROECONOMICSThenewclassicalmacroeconomicsistodaycertainlyUiemostcoherent,ifnotthedominant,schoolofmacrt)cconomicthoughl.ThepivotaldocumentinilStwodecadesofdevelopmentisRobertLucas's1976paper,"Econometric

2、PolicyEvaluation:/Critique."1Lucasarguedagainstthethenreigningmethodsofevaluatingthequantitativeeffectsofeconomicpoliciesonthegroundsthatthemodelsusedtoconductpolicyevaluationwerenotthemselvesinva11anlwithrespecltochangesinpolicy.'InthefoceoftheLucasc-iitique.tbenewclassica

3、leconomicsisdividedinitsviewofhowtoconductquantitativepolicyanalysisbetweenthosewhotakethecriliqueasacallforbe1termethodsofemployingtheoreticalknowledgeinU1edirectempiricalestimationofmacroeconomicmodels,and1hoscwhobelievetba1itshowsthates1imationishopelessandU1atquantitativ

4、eassessmentmustbeconductedusingidealizedmodels.Assessingthesoundnessoftheviewsofthelattercampisthemainfocusofthisessay.l.TheLucasCritiqueTheLucascritiqueisusuallyseenasapressingproblemformacroeconomics,Uiestudyofaggregateeconomicactivity(GNP,inflation,unemployment,interestra

5、tes,etc.).Economiststypicallyenvisageindividualconsumers,workers,orfirmsaschoosingU1ebestarrangementoftheiraffairs,giventheirpreferences,subjecttoconstraintsimposedbylimitedresources.Movingupfromanaccountofindividualbehaviorto

6、TypicalmacroeconometricmodelsbeforeLucas's1SeeHoover(1988).(1991)and(1992)foraccountsofthede'eJop1uentofnewcla.ssica.1thinking.~The..Luc-:t$critique;·!'1$itisalwa~known,isolderth:inLnc~'l.5·s1>:tp•cr,goi.u.gb:ickatlea.sttothewQrkofFris.cbandHaavclmointhe1930s;sec}i..fQrgan(

7、1990),Hoover(1994).ln;~t:u1inR.JOLlCSandNancyC.:i.11-..,•right(eds.).ldeab:anonXII:Corrccung1/lc,·lode/,!dt.al1t.cdionandAbs1rac1ionintheScituces(Po:nt11iS1ud1e.J111thePlulosophJ'oj'theScutncesand1/u:H11manuu?1.vol.86).1>1>.l5·3J.A1ns1erd:un/NewYork.tY:Rodopi.2005.16KewnD.

8、llooverpaperconsistedofasetofaggregatevariablestobeexplained(endogenousvari