global_insurance_review_(by swissre)

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1、Globalinsurancereview2010andoutlook2011/12December2010EconomicResearch&ConsultingTableofcontentsExecutivesummary2Moderategrowthindevelopedeconomies,butrobustgrowthinEMs6Non‑lifeinsurance:Twodifficultyearsuntilthemarketturns12Lifeinsurance:Theindustryhasreturnedtogrowth19Emergingmarkets:Booming

2、251ExecutivesummaryTheglobaleconomicexpansioncontinuesandinflationisnotanissueintheshortandmedium-term̤Theworldeconomyisexpectedtocontinueexpanding,ledbytheemergingmarketcountries.TherecoveryisveryrobustinAsianemergingmarketsandLatinAmerica,whileEasternEuropeandtheMiddleEastwillsoonachievepre‑

3、crisisgrowthrates.̤Inthedevelopedeconomies,growthwillaccelerateslightlyinthecourseof2011and2012,butremainclosetoitslong‑runaveragesof2.5%to3.0%intheUS,1.5%inJapan,andapproximately2.0%inEurope.Strongbusinessinvestmentandimprovingconsumerspendingwillsupportgrowthin2011,whileconstructionwillprovi

4、deafurtherboostin2012.Growthwillnotbestrongenoughtosignificantlylowertheunemploymentrate.̤Giventhisoutlook,inflationintheindustrialisedcountriesisnotexpectedtorise.However,inseveralemergingmarketcountries,inflationisrising,andinsomecases,iscloseto10%.Thiswillrequiremorerestrictivemonetarypolic

5、y.̤InNorthAmericaandEurope,economicpolicyissupportinggrowth,butthesupportisincreasinglyconfinedtomonetarypolicy.Countrieswithhighbudgetdeficitsandpublicdebtarereducingtheirfiscalstimulus.̤Policyrateswillremainlowthroughend‑2011.Long‑termrateswillgraduallyincrease,alongwithpolicyratesandeconomi

6、cactivity.Manyemergingmarketscountriesandsomerawmaterialproducingcountrieshavealreadystartedtoadapttheirmonetarypolicytotheimprovedeconomicsituation.̤Capitalmarketshaverecoveredsubstantially:stockmarketsandcorporatebondvalu‑ationsinNovembersubstantiallyexceededtheirend‑2009levels.Nevertheless,

7、as‑setpricesarestillquitevolatile.Severalemergingmarketshaveseenaboominshareprices.Theimprovementincapitalmarketsandthenarrowingofcreditspreadsisexpectedtocontinue.Risinginterestratesarenotexpectedtoderailthemarketre‑coverybecausetheywi