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1、GlobalPharmaceuticalMarketOutlook:2015Globalpharmaceuticalmarketoutlook:2015Quantificationoftheimpactofmultipledynamicsandexaminingthespendingandusageofmedicinesin2015,globallyandforspecifictherapyareasandcountries1/20/20122Introduction•Thefuturelevelofglobalspendingonmedic
2、ineshasimplicationsforhealthcaresystemsandpolicymakersacrossdevelopedandemergingeconomies•Keydecisionmakerssharethecommongoalsofimprovinghealthoutcomes,whilecontrollingcostsandexpandingaccesstomoreoftheircitizens•Pastspendinggrowthoffersfewcluestothelevelofgrowthtoexpectthr
3、ough2015–Unprecedenteddynamicsareatplay—includinghistoricallyhighlevelsofpatentexpiry,rapidexpansionofdemandformedicinesintheworld'sfastestgrowingeconomies,fewernewmedicinesreachingpatients,andmoremoderateuptakeofthosethatdobecomeavailable–Thesedynamicsaredrivingrapidshifts
4、inthemixofspendingbetweenbrandedproductsandgenerics;andbetweenspendinginthemajordevelopedcountriesandthose17highgrowthemergingcountriesreferredtoas'pharmerging‘1/20/20123Globalmarketscenario•Spendingonmedicineswhichwasestimatedat$856bnin2010,isexpectedtoreachnearly$1,100bni
5、n2015,reflectingaslowinggrowthrateof36%overthefiveyearperiodcomparedto6.2%annualgrowthoverthepastfiveyears•Adistinctshiftisalsoexpectedinthemarketsharesacrosstheglobe,withtheUSandEuropeshareofglobalspendingdeclining•Meanwhile,17highgrowthemergingmarkets(pharmerging)includin
6、gChina,India,Brazil,RussiaandMexicowillcontribute28percentoftotalspendingby2015,upfromonly12percentin20051/20/20124GlobalmarketscenarioShiftingPatterninGlobalmarkets:2005-2015911111218281111RestofWorld271224Pharmerging19JapanEurope413631US200520102015Source:IMSMarketPrognos
7、is,Apr20111/20/20125Globalmarketscenario•Thenextfiveyearswillalsoseeanacceleratingshiftinspendingtowardgenerics,risingto39%ofspendingin2015,upfrom20%in2005•Ontheotherhand,shareofpatentedbrandswhichaccountedfornearly70percentofglobalpharmaceuticalspendingin2010areexpectedtod
8、eclineto53percentin2015,onaccountofpatentexpiries,mainlyinthedevelopedmarketsRapid
