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1、CapitalStructureandStockReturnsIvoWelchYaleUniversityandNationalBureauofEconomicResearchU.S.corporationsdonotissueandrepurchasedebtandequitytocounteractthemechanisticeffectsofstockreturnsontheirdebt-equityratios.Thusoverone-tofive-yearhorizons,stockreturnscanexplainab
2、out40percentofdebtratiodynamics.Althoughcorporatenetissuingactivityislivelyandalthoughitcanexplain60percentofdebtratiodynamics(long-termdebtissuingactivitybeingmostcapitalstruc-ture–relevant),corporateissuingmotivesremainlargelyamystery.Whenstockreturnsareaccountedfo
3、r,manyotherproxiesusedintheliteratureplayamuchlesserroleinexplainingcapitalstructure.I.IntroductionThispapershowsthatU.S.corporationsdolittletocounteractthein-fluenceofstockpricechangesontheircapitalstructures.Asaconse-quence,theirdebt-equityratiosvarycloselywithfluctu
4、ationsintheirownstockprices.Thestockpriceeffectsareoftenlargeandlastalongtime,atleastseveralyears.Thispaperdecomposescapitalstructurechangesintoeffectscausedbycorporateissuingnetofretirementactivity(henceforth,called“netissuing”orjust“issuing”)andintoeffectscausedbys
5、tockreturns.Whileallstockreturn–causedequitygrowthcanexplainabout40percentofcapitalstructuredynamics,allcorporateissuingactivitytogethercanexplainabout60–70percent.Long-termdebtissuingisthemostcapitalAnearlierdraftwastitled“ColumbusEgg.”IthankJudyChevalier,EugeneFama
6、,KenFrench,WilliamGoetzmann,JohnGraham,DavidHirshleifer,GerardHoberg,SteveKap-lan,FlorencioLopez-De-Silanes,VojislavMaksimovic,RoniMichaely,GordonPhilips,JayRitter,MikeStutzer,SheridanTitman,andmanyseminarparticipantsforcomments.IamparticularlygratefultoJohnCochrane,
7、theeditor.GerardHobergprovidedterrificre-searchassistance.[JournalofPoliticalEconomy,2004,vol.112,no.1,pt.1]2004byTheUniversityofChicago.Allrightsreserved.0022-3808/2004/11201-0008$10.00106capitalstructureandstockreturns107structure–relevantcorporateactivity,explaini
8、ngabout30percentofthevariationincorporatedebtratiochanges.However,thecorporateissuingmotivesthemselvesremainlargelyamystery.Issuing
