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1、我国燃油期货分析Group2:纪晓锋,李世成,张喆,刘岛,秦黎商务英语061一、FundamentalAnalysisThegenerallysituationoffueloilfuturesprices.2009年6月9日，上海燃料油0908合约报价约为每吨3723元Thefueloilfuturesmarketwillbebetterforlongposition.Why?ThroughthesupplyanddemandNowadays:theworldover-supplyoffueloil.Thereisasurplusof53.46millionton
2、sofworldoilsupplyin2002,butintermsofregionalbalance,ashortageofdemandfortheAsia-PacificandNorthAmerica,theneedforalargenumberofimportsfromotherregions;theformerSovietUnion,LatinAmericaandtheMiddleEasthaveagreatersurplusoffueloil.Thefuturesupplyanddemandoffueloil1.Asia-Pacificregionwil
3、lcontinuetodemandtheexistenceofahugegap.WhiletheformerSovietUnionwilldeclineinsupplycapacity,butisstilloutsidetheabilityforallregionsoftheworldlargest,almostdemandtheAsia-Pacificregionandaconsiderablegap.2.Africahasabout22milliontonsoffueloilsurplus3.Asia-Pacificregionoverthenextfewye
4、arswillcontinuetobetheworld'smostactiveoiltrade,Singaporeasaninternationaloiltradeandoiltransitcenterwillhavealargeamountoffueloilre-exportsThesituationoffueloiltransactionThesituationoffueloilinventoryRelevanteconomicindex道琼斯工业指数：CPI&PPIChina’sCPIfell1.4percent,andPPIfell7.2%inMayU.S
5、.consumerpriceindex(CPI)increasedby0.6%.andPPIup1.4%inMayGDPThefirstquarterof2009increased6.1percentinChina,againstthebackdropoftheglobalfinancialcrisis,itismeansoveralleconomicperformanceduringthefirstquarterbetterthanexpectedInU.S.,thefirstquarterGDProse0.7percent,higheroverseassale
6、softhereasonsforpushingupGDP.Economistsexpectedavalueof0.8percentoryears.Thefirstquarterof02-yearincreaseistheweakestgrowthsincetheendoftheyear.Economistsexpecttheeconomywillreboundinthesecondquarter.EconomicsituationofChina,U.S.andEuropeItiseasytoseethatChina,theUnitedStatesandEurope
7、'seconomicsituationisnotquitewellinthewholeeconomy,butitisstillintherecoveryphase,andslowlyturnforthebetterFutures-relatedimpact:crudeoil本周原油市场涨势有所趋缓，整体涨幅2.61%。国内燃油市场本周主力换月至909合约，走势上依旧跟随国际原油市场，震荡上行，盘中创出年内新高至3838元，本周涨幅逾4%，剔除端午节补涨因素外，整体上沪油走势仍弱于原油市场。 原油市场短期内快速上扬主要依靠人们对经济复苏预期以及美元快速走软，与其基本
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