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1、Doelectoralcyclesdifferacrosspoliticalsystems?∗TorstenPersson†andGuidoTabellini‡July2002AbstractDofiscalpolicyvariables—overallspending,revenue,deficitsandwelfare-statespending—displaysystematicpatternsinthevicinityofelections?Anddosuchelectoralcyclesdifferamongpol
2、iticalsystems?Weinvestigatethesequestionsinadatasetencompassingsixtydemocra-ciesfrom1960-98.Withoutconditioningonthepoliticalsystem,wefindthattaxesarecutbeforeelections,painfulfiscaladjustmentsarepost-poneduntilaftertheelections,whilewelfare-statespendingdisplays
3、noelectoralcycle.Oursubsequentresultsshowthatthepre-electiontaxcutsisauniversalphenomenon.Thepost-electionfiscaladjustments(spend-ingcuts,taxhikesandrisesinsurplus)are,however,onlypresentinpresidentialdemocracies.Moreover,majoritarianelectoralrulesaloneareassoci
4、atedwithpre-electoralspendingcuts,whileproportionalelectoralrulesareassociatedwithexpansionsofwelfarespendingbothbeforeandafterelections.1IntroductionDofiscalpolicyvariables—suchasoverallspending,revenue,deficitsandwelfare-statespending—displaysystematicpatternsb
5、eforeandafterelections?Anddothesepatternsdifferdependingontheelectoralrulesortheformofgovernment?Existingempiricalresearchhasaddressedthefirstquestion,butalmostnothingisknownabouthowelectoralcyclesvaryacrosspoliticalsys-tems.Thegoalofthispaperistofillthisgapinoure
6、mpiricalknowledgeaboutelectoralpolicycycles.Mostofthemodernempiricalworkonelectoralfiscalpolicycyclescanbemotivatedbytheoriesoriginallyformulatedinthelate1980s:themodelofop-portunisticelectoralcyclesinRogoffandSibert(1988),orthemodelofelectoralaccountabilityinFer
7、ejohn(1986).Rationalbutuninformedvotersrewardgood∗Thispapergrewoutofaspartoftheearlierpaper,PerssonandTabellini(2001).TheresearchissupportedbygrantsfromtheSwedishResearchCouncil,theItalianMURSTandCNR,andBocconiUniversity.WethankAgostinoConsolo,AlessandraBonfigli
8、oliandDavideSalaforexcellentresearchassistance.†IIES,StockholmUniversity.‡IGIER,BocconiUniversity.1performanceinofficewiththeirvote,becausetheyattributegoodperformanceeitherto
