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1、CONSUMERDEBT,GROWTHANDINCOMEDISTRIBUTIONAmitavaKrishnaDutt*DepartmentofEconomicsUniversityofNotreDameNotreDame,IN46556,USAMarch2003ThispaperdevelopsapostKeynesianmodelofgrowthandincomedistributionwithlong-rungrowthdeterminedbyaggregatedemand,inwhichworke
2、rscanborrowtofinancetheirconsumption,butaresubjecttocreditconstraints.Themodelisusedtoshowthatanexpansioninborrowingduetotheeasingofcreditconditionswillleadtoanexpansionineconomicactivityandanimprovementinincomedistributionintheshortrun,andtoanincreasein
3、growthbeyondtheshortrun.However,thelong-runimpactoftheexpansionofborrowingongrowthandincomedistributionisambiguous.Themodelisusedtoexamineconditionsunderwhichtheexpansioninborrowinganddebtismorelikelytohavepositiveeffectsongrowthandincomedistribution.For
4、instance,itisshownthatahighlevelofautonomousinvestmentislikelytoimplypositiveeffectsandahighinterestrateislikelytoimplynegativeeffects.*IamgratefultoseminarparticipantsattheUniversityofNotreDameandtheIndianInstituteofManagement,Kolkata,especiallytoJaimeR
5、os,fortheircommentsandsuggestions.1.IntroductionTherehasbeenasignificantriseinconsumerindebtednessinmanycountries.IntheUS,theratioofconsumerdebttoincomehasincreasedoverthelastfiftyyearsorso.AsshowninFigure1,theexpansionwasparticularlylargefromtheearlyfif
6、ties,whenconsumerdebtwas12.5%ofpersonaldisposableincomeand8.5%ofGDP,to1965,whenthesefigureswere19.5%and13.5%,andagainfrom1992to2001,whentheratiosincreasedfrom16.8%to23.0%andfrom12.9%to16.9%.1Between1984and1999,averagehouseholdbalancesonunsecuredloansdoub
7、ledinrealterms,2andoutstandingbalancesoncreditcardsmorethantripledbetween1983-98(seeSullivan,2002).Thisphenomenonhasafflictedseveralotheradvancedcountriesaswell,althoughbynomeansallofthem.Increasesinthecousmerdebt(excluding0.2500.2000.150CosumerDebt/Disp
8、osablePersonalIncomeCosumerDebt/GDP0.1000.0500.0001952195719621967197219771982198719921997Figure1ConsumerdebttoincomeratiofortheUS1homemortgages)topersonaldisposableincomesincethelate1980sareobservedforCanada,FranceandGerm
