In-GOLD-we-TRUST-2013-Incrementum-Extended-Version

In-GOLD-we-TRUST-2013-Incrementum-Extended-Version

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时间:2019-07-10

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1、IncrementumAGInGoldweTrust2013–ExtendedVersion27June2013InGOLDweTRUST2013–ExtendedVersionEventhoughtheconsensusisconvincedthatthegoldbullmarkethasended,weremainfirmlyoftheopinionthatthefundamentalargumentinfavorofgoldremainsintact.Thereexistsnoback-t

2、estforthecurrentfinancialera.Neverbeforehavesuchenormousmonetarypolicyexperimentstakenplaceonaglobalbasis.Ifthereeverwasaneedformonetaryinsurance,itistoday.Ronald-PeterStoeferle,CMTInthecourseoftherecentgoldcrash,themarkethasonceagainrps@incrementum.

3、lidemonstrateditstendencytomaximizepain.Massivetechnicaldamagehasbeeninflicted.WeareconvincedthatrepairingtheMarkJ.Valek,CAIAtechnicalpicturewilltakesometime.Accordingly$1,480isour12-mjv@incrementum.limonthtarget.WethinkthatthecorrectionthatbeganinSe

4、ptember2011exhibitsstrongsimilaritiestothemidcyclecorrectionof1974to1976.Thatphasewassimilartothecurrentone,especiallywithrespecttothemarkeddisinflationbackdrop,thepresenceofrisingrealinterestratesandextremepessimismregardinggold-relatedinvestments.S

5、ince2008therehavebeenmorethan500interestratecutsaroundtheworld.Non-standardmonetarypolicymeasuresseemtohavebecomestandardprocedure.TaperingandexitingfromQEmightbemoredifficultthanmarketparticipantscurrentlyenvision.Duetothehighlevelsofdebt,nominalint

6、erestratesmustremainnearzeroandrealinterestratesnegative,providingasolidfoundationforfuturegoldpriceincreases.Thegoldminingindustryiscurrentlygoingthroughamajorperiodofchange.Itappearsasthoughtheindustryisintheprocessofalteringitspriorities.Webelieve

7、thatthenewcommitmenttotransparentcostreporting,greaterfinancialdisciplineandshareholdervalueisacrucial–ifquitelateincoming–insightbythesector.Fromasentimentperspective,goldminingstocksareprobably“theultimatecontrarianplay”.Thisgoldreportisthefirstinw

8、hichweofferaquantitativemodelofthegoldprice.Themodeljustifiesaconsiderableriskpremiumtothecurrentprice,althoughonlysmallprobabilitiesofoccurrenceofextremescenarioshavebeenfactoredin.Basedonourconservativeassumptions,wearriveatalong-termpricetargetof$

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