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ID:39756212
大小:2.82 MB
页数:54页
时间:2019-07-10
《In-GOLD-we-TRUST-2013-Incrementum-Extended-Version》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。
1、IncrementumAGInGoldweTrust2013–ExtendedVersion27June2013InGOLDweTRUST2013–ExtendedVersionEventhoughtheconsensusisconvincedthatthegoldbullmarkethasended,weremainfirmlyoftheopinionthatthefundamentalargumentinfavorofgoldremainsintact.Thereexistsnoback-t
2、estforthecurrentfinancialera.Neverbeforehavesuchenormousmonetarypolicyexperimentstakenplaceonaglobalbasis.Ifthereeverwasaneedformonetaryinsurance,itistoday.Ronald-PeterStoeferle,CMTInthecourseoftherecentgoldcrash,themarkethasonceagainrps@incrementum.
3、lidemonstrateditstendencytomaximizepain.Massivetechnicaldamagehasbeeninflicted.WeareconvincedthatrepairingtheMarkJ.Valek,CAIAtechnicalpicturewilltakesometime.Accordingly$1,480isour12-mjv@incrementum.limonthtarget.WethinkthatthecorrectionthatbeganinSe
4、ptember2011exhibitsstrongsimilaritiestothemidcyclecorrectionof1974to1976.Thatphasewassimilartothecurrentone,especiallywithrespecttothemarkeddisinflationbackdrop,thepresenceofrisingrealinterestratesandextremepessimismregardinggold-relatedinvestments.S
5、ince2008therehavebeenmorethan500interestratecutsaroundtheworld.Non-standardmonetarypolicymeasuresseemtohavebecomestandardprocedure.TaperingandexitingfromQEmightbemoredifficultthanmarketparticipantscurrentlyenvision.Duetothehighlevelsofdebt,nominalint
6、erestratesmustremainnearzeroandrealinterestratesnegative,providingasolidfoundationforfuturegoldpriceincreases.Thegoldminingindustryiscurrentlygoingthroughamajorperiodofchange.Itappearsasthoughtheindustryisintheprocessofalteringitspriorities.Webelieve
7、thatthenewcommitmenttotransparentcostreporting,greaterfinancialdisciplineandshareholdervalueisacrucial–ifquitelateincoming–insightbythesector.Fromasentimentperspective,goldminingstocksareprobably“theultimatecontrarianplay”.Thisgoldreportisthefirstinw
8、hichweofferaquantitativemodelofthegoldprice.Themodeljustifiesaconsiderableriskpremiumtothecurrentprice,althoughonlysmallprobabilitiesofoccurrenceofextremescenarioshavebeenfactoredin.Basedonourconservativeassumptions,wearriveatalong-termpricetargetof$
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