Evidence on the impact of sustained exposure to air pollution on life expectancy from China’s Huai River policy

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1、EvidenceontheimpactofsustainedexposuretoairpollutiononlifeexpectancyfromChina’sHuaiRiverpolicya,1b,1c,d,1,2e,1YuyuChen,AvrahamEbenstein,MichaelGreenstone,andHongbinLiabAppliedEconomicsDepartment,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversity,Beijing100871,Chi

2、na;DepartmentofEconomics,HebrewUniversitycdofJerusalem,MountScopus91905,Israel;DepartmentofEconomics,MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology,Cambridge,MA02142;NationalBureauofeEconomicResearch,Cambridge,MA02138;andChinaDataCenterandDepartmentofEconomics,Schoolo

3、fEconomicsandManagement,TsinghuaUniversity,Beijing100084,ChinaEditedbyWilliamC.Clark,HarvardUniversity,Cambridge,MA,andapprovedMay28,2013(receivedforreviewJanuary2,2013)Thispaper’sfindingssuggestthatanarbitraryChinesepolicythatcauses).Theestimatessuggesttha

4、tthe500millionresidentsofgreatlyincreasestotalsuspendedparticulates(TSPs)airpollutionNorthernChinaduringthe1990sexperiencedalossofmorethaniscausingthe500millionresidentsofNorthernChinatolosemore2.5billionlifeyearsowingtotheHuaiRiverpolicy.than2.5billionlif

5、eyearsoflifeexpectancy.Thequasi-experimen-Furthermore,aresearchdesignbasedonthispolicyallowsforatalempiricalapproachisbasedonChina’sHuaiRiverpolicy,whichuniqueopportunitytoestimatetheeffectofTSPsonhumanhealth,providedfreewinterheatingviatheprovisionofcoalf

6、orboilersinwhichcanbeappliedtoothercountries,timeperiods,andsettings.citiesnorthoftheHuaiRiverbutdeniedheattothesouth.UsingTheresultingestimatessuggestthatlong-termexposuretoan3aregressiondiscontinuitydesignbasedondistancefromtheHuaiadditional100μg/mofTSPs

7、isassociatedwithareductioninlifeRiver,wefindthatambientconcentrationsofTSPsareabout184expectancyatbirthofabout3.0y(95%CI:0.4,5.6).Thisestimateμg/m3[95%confidenceinterval(CI):61,307]or55%higherintheismorethanfivetimeslargerthantheestimatedimpactofTSPsnorth.Fur

8、ther,theresultsindicatethatlifeexpectanciesareaboutonlifeexpectancyfromfittingaconventionalordinaryleast-5.5y(95%CI:0.8,10.2)lowerinthenorthowingtoanincreasedsquaresequationonthesamedata.SCIENCESincidenceofcar