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1、SpecificationIssuesinModelsofPopulationandEmploymentGrowthMarlonG.BoarnetAssociateProfessorDepartmentsofUrbanandRegionalPlanningandEconomicsandInstituteofTransportationStudiesSaksithChalermpongPh.D.Student,TransportationScienceandInstituteofTransportationStudiesElizabethGehoPh.D.Student,Tr
2、ansportationScienceandInstituteofTransportationStudiesUniversityofCalifornia,IrvineIrvine,CA92697Boarnetcontactinformation:Ph.949-824-7695Fax:949-824-8566Email:mgboarne@uci.eduDecember,2001TheUniversityofCaliforniaTransportationCenter,fundedbytheU.S.andCaliforniaDepartmentsofTransportation
3、,providedfinancialsupportforthisresearch.I.IntroductionSpatialeconometricadaptationsofpopulationandemploymentgrowthmodelshavebeenusedtostudytheemploymentimpactsofurbanrailtransit(BollingerandIhlanfeldt,1997),thelinksbetweenurbanandruraldevelopment(Henry,Barkley,andBao,1997;SchmittandHenry,
4、2000),andcausalitybetweenintra-metropolitanpopulationandemploymentlocation(Boarnet,1994b).Yettheliteraturehassofargivenlimitedattentiontotwospecificationissuesthatarefundamentaltotheperformanceofspatialeconometricpopulationandemploymentgrowthmodels.First,theweightmatrix,whichdefineshowgeog
5、raphicunitsofobservationrelatetooneanother,mustbedefinedapriori,andalternativeversionsoftheweightmatrixhaverarelybeenconsistentlycompared.Second,mostrecentpopulation-employmentgrowthmodelsarelaggedadjustmentmodels,yettheestimatedlagparametersoftenimplythatthesystemdoesnotadjusttoalong-rune
6、quilibrium,violatingoneofthemaintainedhypothesesofthelaggedadjustmentapproach.Thispaperanalyzesthosethreespecificationissues,andprovidesinsightintoboththevalidityofvariouseconometricpracticesthathavebeencommonintherecentliteratureandthestabilityofeconometricpopulationandemploymentgrowthmod
7、elswhentypicalassumptionsandapproachesarechanged.II.BackgroundPopulationandemploymentgrowthmodelshavealonghistoryinregionalscienceandurbaneconomics.SteinnesandFisher(1974)firstintroducedatwo-equation,intra-metropolitanpopulationandemploymentgrowthmodelthat,byi
