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1、PreliminaryModelingofCapandTradeScenariosinBrazilRubenLubowski,SeniorEconomistPedroPiris-Cabezas,ConsultantResearcherEnvironmentalDefenseFundCapandTradeinBrazilWorkshopFundaçãoBrasileiraparaoDesenvolvimentoSustentável(FBDS)RiodeJaneiroAugust2,2010OverviewEvaluatedifferentemissionstradings
2、cenariosforimplementingBrazil’snationalclimatetarget•Leino12,187ofDecember2009Domesticsectoraltargets•WithandwithoutdomesticemissionstradingInternationaltrading•Differentinternationaldemand(e.g.price)andcostscenarios•AlternativeBrazilemissioncaps(e.g.nationaltargetascap)•Deforestationonl
3、yversuseconomy-widetradingGoalistoexploretechnicalcollaborationtodevelopmorerefinedanalysisandjointreport.MethodologyMarginalAbatementCost(MAC)estimatesforBrazilconstructedfromlateststudies:•WoodsHoleResearchCenter(2007),CostsandBenefitsofReducingDeforestationintheBrazilianAmazon.Nepstad
4、,Daniel,BritaldoSoares-Filho,FrankMerry,PauloMoutinho,HermannOliveiraRodrigues,MariaBowman,SteveSchwartzman,OrianaAlmeida,SergioRivero.•OthersectorsfromWorldBank(2010)BrazilLow-CarbonCountryCaseStudy.ChristophedeGouvello,BritaldoSoares-Filho,RobertoSchaeffer,FuadJorgeAlves,JoaoWagnerSilvaA
5、lves.•AgricultureestimatessupplementedwithMcKinsey(2009)EDFGlobalCarbonMarketToolforinternationaltrading•Estimatedsuppliesofemissionreductionsfromallsources•Demandforreductionsfrommodeledcommitments•Marketclearsandoptimalovertime(permit“banking”)EstimatedReductionsversusBusinessasUsualPro
6、jections:ExamplewithNationalTargetasCap,2010-2020DomesticSectoralTargetstoMeetNationalClimatePlanBrazilianGovernment’sProposalforEmissionsReductionsperSectorby2020Source:MMA,MAPA,MME,MF,MDIC,MCT,MRE,CasaCivil,2009NationalDeforestationTargetOnly,2010-20DifferentiatedSectorCaps:50%ofdeforest
7、ationtargets,othersectorsallocatedresponsibilityinproportiontogovernment’sproposal,2010-20DomesticEmissionsTradingScenario:Cost-EffectiveSectoralAllocation,2010-20Amazon(53%),Cerrado(9%),Agriculture(32%),Other(8%)“When”and“Where”FlexibilityLowersEstimatedCosts
